Scofield Biblical Institute and Theological Seminary

ByDEAN SHMUEL ELMAS/GLOBES/TNS

NOVEMBER 11, 2025 08:58

Updated: NOVEMBER 11, 2025 10:07

The 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla had many detrimental effects on Israeli-Turkish relations. One of the least talked about is the severing of the deep connection between Israel’s defense industries and the Turkish defense establishment, which had included the supply of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Heron drones.

Israeli technicians stopped visiting Turkey, and as a result of poor maintenance, drones crashed. “Look at how Israeli drones crash,” quipped President Erdogan, without addressing the lack of maintenance.

The years have passed, and today the two countries are battling it out head-to-head at the top of the international drone trade rankings. Israel and Turkey could also clash in Syria, which has become a Turkish protectorate, run by Ahmed al-Sharaa in coordination with his patron, Erdogan, and often with interests that conflict with Israel.

“Turkey is a significant adversary, and a clash between the countries in Syria could even happen by mistake,” explains Dr. Eyal Pinko of the Department of Political Studies and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.

“Even taking into account that the Turks are mainly in northern Syria, because they are interested in oil and natural gas, and Israel is mainly in the south, a clash could occur, if at all, in the air. Manned aircraft battles are less likely due to their high escalation, so if one side wants to carry out small strikes for the sake of warnings, it could happen with drones.”

A view shows a Hermes 900 drone as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the Palmachim Air Force Base near the city of Rishon Lezion, Israel July 5, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)

Alon Unger, chairman and founder of Unmanned Vehicles Israel Defense (UVID) Conferences and founder of the UAV community in Israel, warns that “What awaits in the skies of Syria is not Gaza. In the drone space, countries allow themselves things that they don’t do elsewhere.”

Such a clash could further highlight Israeli and Turkish UAV products, which are already well known in the market. A study published by researcher Molly Campbell at the CNAS (Center for a New American Security) found that Israel was the world’s top supplier of drones (suicide drones) between 1995 and 2023, while Turkey, which only entered the market in 2018, supplied more attack drones than any other country.

Both countries’ weapons are “combat-proven,” but to varying degrees. Both Israeli and Turkish-made drones were used by Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Then, at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Turkish Bayraktar TB2s impressed, but a few months later, the Russians found an appropriate response.

During Israel’s operation in Iran in June, Israeli drones made by IAI, Elbit Systems, and Aeronautics took over the skies of Iran, including in the heart of major cities.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, says that the Turkish media is careful not to provide any coverage about Israeli drones. This measure exists even though the local industry was founded on Israeli and US products.

“Erdogan uses the expression ‘the cruel landlord turns the tenant into the owner of the apartment somewhere else.’ That is, because the Turks relied on Israel to obtain the drones, and they ‘did not provide a good service,’ so the Turks chose to develop their own drones,” explains Dr. Cohen Yanarocak.

“Today, when you look at the coverage of the Israeli attacks during the war in Gaza and Lebanon, the Turks refrain from praising Israeli technology. In contrast, when you open the Turkish Intelligence Academy report on the subject of Israel’s operation in Iran, you see that they are well aware of Israeli progress and detail the means and their effectiveness.”

The struggle over arms exports

The two countries are also battling it out in the higher ranks of global drone exports. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Israel ranks eighth among exporters, accounting for about 3.1% of total trade in 2020-2024, and Turkey ranks 11th, accounting for 1.7%. However, an examination of trends shows that while Israel fell slightly by about 3.2% between 2015 and 2019, the Turks rose by about 0.8%.

The drone sector was a major anchor in Turkey’s defense industry in 2022-2024, accounting for 25%-33% of all Turkish defense exports. In contrast, Israel is significantly lagging behind, as reflected in official data.

According to SIBAT data, drones accounted for 25% of Israel’s defense exports in 2022, but dropped to 4% in 2023 and to only 1% in 2024. This is despite the fact that, according to Unger, there are more than 300 companies in the Israeli ecosystem.

The Israeli drone industry will gather for the traditional UVID exhibition at Expo Tel Aviv on November 26. Data provided to “Globes” by analysts ABG-SC, ahead of the event, shows the scope of the Turks’ extensive drone exports, dozens of Akinci and Aksungur drones, about 100 Anka drones, and more than 600 Bayraktar TB2s.

The Bayraktar TB2, Akinci, and other models are manufactured by Baykar Corp, whose chairman and CTO is President Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar. This company is Turkey’s defense export leader by a large margin, with $1.8 billion in revenue in 2024.

In second place is Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSA?), with $750 million in revenue, and in third place is shipyard company ASFAT ($644 million), which is behind the strength of the Turkish navy.

“Drones as an engine of growth”

Unger promotes the vision and policy in Israel of “UAVs as a national growth engine,” which aims to coordinate all ministries to organize activity in the field. This is not only the Ministry of Defense, but also the Ministry of Economy and Industry, which has identified it as a potential growth engine in the defense sector.

Therefore, the Defense and Cyber Cluster operates in the Ministry of Economy Growth Authority and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, led by Elinor Jacobson.

Due to trends in Israel and worldwide, Unger calls for an awakening in the field of drones following the lack of readiness in the drone field, which was reflected at the start of the war.

Before the war, there was a debate about whether drones should be abandoned altogether due to the availability of relatively cheap Chinese products, especially DJI, but immediately after October 7, the need for Israeli independence became apparent.

The Turks, it is clear, can both produce and export in large volumes. Reports abroad indicate that Turkey exported defense products to 178 countries last year, a 103% jump from 2015-2019. According to SIPRI, its main customers are the UAE, Pakistan, and Qatar.

Excluding the UAE, which also buys from Israel, Pakistan, and Qatar, reflects how different the main export markets of Turkey and Israel are. According to SIPRI, 34% of Israeli exports in 2020-2024 were to India, 13% to the US, and 8.1% to the Philippines.

In the latest escalation between India and Pakistan in May, Israeli and Turkish weapons in general and drones in particular clashed head-on, and the Indians came away satisfied. This influenced their decision this week to sign a strategic cooperation agreement between the defense ministries of the two countries, and India’s ambition to procure new systems from Israel, especially missiles.

Differences with Ankara

The number of different countries to which Turkey exports indicates the great differences between the Defense Export Control Division (DECC) of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and Turkey’s more undiscriminating strategy. The latter is willing to export to almost any country, including those that lack the funds to purchase even one drone.

For these, the Turks have created a model in which they sometimes give a drone or two “as a gift” to an undeveloped country, forcing it to purchase maintenance services from them.

In contrast to this undiscriminating policy, Unger warns against the consequences of overregulation. Drones are also used for civilian missions, and despite this, he says, even a drone parachute requires DECC approval.

In the past, Israel was also innovative in terms of marketing. In 2010, the US demanded that NATO members provide flight hours in Afghanistan. The Germans turned to Israel and leased Heron 1 drones from IAI. Unger says, “Israel’s uniqueness was also expressed in innovative sales methods.

Leasing is not a standard thing in the defense sector: payment by the hour. However, countries have since developed capabilities, and there is less need for it.”

ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF

NOVEMBER 10, 2025 21:59

Updated: NOVEMBER 11, 2025 09:58

Israel should seek to overthrow the Iranian regime before the end of US President Donald Trump’s administration, a senior official told Israeli public broadcaster KAN News on Monday.

Trump’s second term as US president is due to end in January 2029.

Iran has been seeking to reproduce its stockpile of advanced missiles, and Israel is closely monitoring Tehran’s efforts, a senior security source told KAN.

The New York Times, on Sunday, cited regional officials and analysts who view another outbreak of war between Israel and Iran as “only a matter of time.”

Iran’s new Pickaxe Mountain enrichment site, located approximately one kilometer south of the Natanz enrichment facility, is underway, and inspectors have not been permitted to access it, the NYT noted.

A satellite image shows airstrike craters covered with dirt at the Natanz Enrichment Facility, following US airstrikes, in Natanz County, Iran, June 24, 2025 (credit: MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

However, inspectors of the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA visited Iranian nuclear sites last week, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, according to state media, a week after the IAEA urged Iran to “seriously improve” cooperation.

The IAEA has carried out about a dozen inspections in Iran since hostilities with Israel in June, but last week highlighted it had not been given access to nuclear facilities such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, which the United States bombed.

“As long as we are a member of the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons), we will abide by our commitments, and just last week, IAEA inspectors visited several nuclear facilities, including the Tehran Research Reactor,” Esmaeil Baghaei said, without naming the facilities.

Iran’s Pezeshkian says Tehran seeks peace, but will not bow to coercion

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed on Friday that Iran seeks peace, but will not be coerced into abandoning its nuclear and missile programs, state media reported.

Trump said on Thursday that Iran had been asking if US sanctions against the country could be lifted.

“We are willing to hold talks under international frameworks, but not if they say you can’t have a (nuclear) science, or the right to defend yourself (with missiles), or else we will bomb you,” Pezeshkian said.

Last month, Pezeshkian warned that Iran may have no choice but to relocate its capital from Tehran to the south, possibly to a city in Hormozgan province, due to ongoing droughts.

Trump says Iran has been asking if US sanctions can be lifted

Trump said on Thursday that Iran has been asking if Washington’s sanctions against the country can be lifted.

“Iran has been asking if the sanctions could be lifted. Iran has got very heavy US sanctions, and it makes it really hard for them to do what they’d like to be able to do. And I’m open to hearing that, and we’ll see what happens, but I would be open to it,” Trump told reporters late on Thursday at the White House.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Turkey and Israel clash in global UAV trade and risking a Syria conflict