Iran is hedging and hopes China and shore up its support for the Islamic Republic.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANUpdated: APRIL 24, 2025 17:05Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, attend a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear issue at Diaoyutai State Guest House on March 14, 2025, in Beijing, China.(photo credit: POOL VIA REUTERS)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing this week and spoke optimistically about Iran-China relations. The two countries have grown increasingly closer in recent years. This is because Iran is also involved in talks over a deal with the US.
Tehran is hedging, hoping to gain closer ties with China to shore up support for the Islamic Republic.Iranian state media heralded the meeting in Beijing. “Araghchi said he talked with the Chinese foreign minister about the type of cooperation Tehran and Beijing can have together in the future,” the report said. Araghchi said this will be a “golden year” in China-Iran ties. High-level visits are expected to ensue.
“After meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, Araghchi said the discussions covered a wide range of issues, including the ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States.”
In an interview with state media, the Iranian diplomat “described the meeting with Wang as lengthy but highly significant, addressing almost all aspects of bilateral relations and international developments.”
He said, “We also discussed the type of cooperation Tehran and Beijing can pursue together in the future.”
Further, Araghchi mentioned that the next round of talks with the US is expected to take place in Oman. Iran remains “cautiously optimistic” about the talks, he added.
Iran wants China to support its interests as well. “Araghchi said he and the Chinese foreign minister also exchanged views on US policies, including its global bullying and hegemonic behavior,” the IRNA report noted. Moreover, the Chinese diplomat shared China’s experience dealing with the US.
IRANIAN PRESIDENT Masoud Pezeshkian attends a news conference in Tehran last week. At a cultural event, he was told not to read poetry in Azerbaijani, says the writer. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)
Pezeshkian
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was expected to make an upcoming visit to China. “Pezeshkian will undertake a bilateral visit and later attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in September, making 2025 a golden year for Iran-China relations,” Araghchi added.
At the same time, Iran’s president is preparing a visit to Azerbaijan. Pezeshkian “stressed the longstanding shared history, as well as cultural and religious commonalities between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan and said the relations between the two neighboring countries are based on deep and enduring friendship,” the IRNA noted.
As if to show how China was also outreaching to Russia and other countries while it meets with the Chinese and Azeris, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad arrived in Moscow on Thursday. He is due to participate in the 18th session of the Iran-Russia Joint Economic Commission.
As Azerbaijan’s regional influence grows, Iran sees a threat to its strategic axis from the Levant to the Caucasus.
By ALEX GRINBERGIsrael and Azerbaijan(photo credit: courtesy of Presidency of Azerbaijan)
The anticipated visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Baku underscores a significant shift in the regional balance of power. Although the date has not yet been announced, official sources confirm that the visit is imminent.
This move highlights Azerbaijan’s emerging role as a strategic bridge between Israel and Turkey, particularly in relation to Syria, and signals new geopolitical dynamics with far-reaching implications.
For Iran, this development is deeply unsettling. Tehran views Baku’s mediation between Jerusalem and Ankara as a direct threat to its ability to project power in both the Levant and the Caucasus. The collapse of the Assad regime—enabled, in part, by the sustained weakening of Hezbollah through Israeli strikes—has already deprived Iran of its primary stronghold in Syria. Turkey’s growing presence in the region further diminishes the chances of an Iranian resurgence.
Iran has long invoked the specter of “Pan-Turkis”, accusing Ankara and Baku of attempting to undermine Iranian interests. Though not a clearly defined ideology, Tehran uses the term to describe coordinated Azerbaijani-Turkish efforts that counteract Iran’s’s disruptive actions across multiple fronts Baku’s increasing involvement in the Levant signals a shift: Israel and Azerbaijan are no longer merely reactive players defending against proximate threats but are increasingly capable of targeting Iranian interests through indirect and strategic means Tehran’s hope to entangle its adversaries with local proxy threats has weakened.
A recent report by Asharq Al-Awsat outlines Israel’s evolving post-Assad strategy in Syria, focused on dismantling Tehran’s military presence with the help of regional partners. As Assad’s grip loosens and Russian influence declines due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan, a Muslim-majority country and strongly aligned with both Israel and Turkey, has emerged as a potential mediator.
Azerbaijani and Israeli flags. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)
The informal but strategic triangle between Baku, Jerusalem, and Ankara may reshape the Syrian theater. Azerbaijan’s close military and intelligence ties with Israel grant it unique leverage. For Iran, any erosion of its influence in Syria is a red line. The Islamic Republic has spent decades building a land bridge from Tehran to Lebanon, anchored by Hezbollah.
Losing Syria would be a devastating strategic setback. Baku’s growing alignment with Israel also has symbolic weight. Its potential inclusion in the Abraham Accords, Washington’s flagship regional normalization initiative, would mark a milestone in Muslim-Israeli cooperation. Azerbaijan’s secular identity and long history of collaboration with Israel position it as a natural candidate for integration into the Western-aligned bloc.
This momentum has not gone unnoticed in Washington. US President Donald Trump recently praised Azerbaijan’s support for Israel in a letter to President Ilham Aliyev, recognizing Baku’s role in advancing regional stability. The gesture signals Washington’s view of Azerbaijan as a vital actor in countering both Iranian aggression and Turkey’s shifting allegiances within NATO.
Tehran, in turn, has reinforced its ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan’s historic adversary. In a pointed display of military cooperation, Iran and Armenia held joint drills warning against “foreign-designed border changes,” a message directed at Baku and its allies. According to The Cradle, the exercises reflect a shared effort to resist regional realignments seen as threatening to their interests.
Economically and militarily, Iran is leaning on Armenia as a strategic partner to offset the influence of pro-Western Muslim states like Azerbaijan. Yet it is in Syria where Tehran may face the greatest loss. Should Baku successfully broker Israeli-Turkish cooperation, Iran risks losing its vital corridor connecting Iraq and Lebanon, undermining its regional deterrence and ability to supply Hezbollah.
What does this mean for Azerbaijan
By expanding its role in regional diplomacy and security, Azerbaijan is proving to be a powerful geopolitical actor well beyond the South Caucasus. Since 1979, Iran has waged a hybrid campaign against Israel, the United States, and now Azerbaijan. These fronts, the Caucasus and the Levant alike, are increasingly interconnected.
Now surrounded by Abraham Accords members, a resurgent Israel-Azerbaijan alliance, and shifting Turkish calculations, Iran is recalibrating. Its partnership with Armenia represents both a hedge against strategic isolation and a historical alignment. As the U.S. and Israel deepen their ties with Baku, Tehran is likely to respond through proxy escalation and further regional entrenchment.
In this shifting landscape, Azerbaijan’s rise as a mediator between Israel and Turkey—and its prospective role in the Abraham Accords—signals a profound and dangerous change for Tehran. With Baku on the ascent and Syria slipping from its grasp, Iran’s long-held regional ambitions are being challenged like never before.
Alex Grinberg is a Captain (res.) at the IDF’s Military Intelligence research department and an expert on Iran and the South Caucasus. Grinberg is also a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
The proposal would involve the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for a mutually agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, the report said.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFUpdated: APRIL 24, 2025 13:56Hamas terrorists stand guard in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 22, 2025(photo credit: EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images)
Egypt has allegedly prepared a new proposal for a hostage-ceasefire deal expected to be presented to Israel and Hamas by the end of the week, according to a Thursday report by the Saudi-owned channel Asharq News, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the report, the new proposal will meet both Israel’s and Hamas’s demands in a “balanced” manner and will aim to establish a long-term truce between the sides that could potentially last between five and seven years.
To ensure a truce between the two parties, the agreement would involve guarantees from regional and international parties to “ensure the fulfillment of mutual obligation,” the report added.
The new proposal was prepared by Egypt in consultation and coordination with Qatar and the current US administration, the sources in the report claimed.
According to the sources, “once a framework agreement is reached, the ground situation will be restored and all military operations will be halted.”
A truck moves at the Rafah border crossing, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah, Egypt, February 18, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY)
“Humanitarian and relief aid will be introduced according to the international protocol,” the sources continued.
Hamas and Israel’s demands
The proposal would involve the release of all Israeli hostages held by the terror group in exchange for a mutually agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, the report said.
The report emphasized that the deal would be “contingent on an immediate and complete ceasefire, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the initiation of the Gaza reconstruction process, and the lifting of the blockade imposed since 2007.”
Israel, in return, would expect Hamas to declare its commitment to a five-year ceasefire and that the terror group would no longer have ruling control of the Gaza Strip, the source cited in the report said.
Israeli delegation to depart for hostage talks
The report comes as an Israeli delegation is expected to depart in the coming days for talks aimed at advancing a hostage deal, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday.
Sources informed on the matter told the Post that there has been no change in Hamas’s position regarding the deal.
Hamas has made it clear to mediators from Egypt and Qatar that “we will not agree to a deal that includes a temporary ceasefire.”
Israel has said it will only agree to a deal in which 10-11 hostages will be released for 45 days of ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said Israel will not agree to cease the war, as Hamas demands.
