PM’s aides reportedly predict move won’t force early elections since Ben Gvir, Smotrich may leave government but will return upon expected breakdown of pact’s phase-one ceasefire

From left to right: Otzma Yehudit leader MK Itamar Ben Gvir, Prime Minister and Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu, and Religious Zionism head MK Bezalel Smotrich, in 2022. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

From left to right: Otzma Yehudit leader MK Itamar Ben Gvir, Prime Minister and Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu, and Religious Zionism head MK Bezalel Smotrich, in 2022. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inner circle is skeptical of threats by far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to bring down the government if it signs a hostages-for-ceasefire deal with Hamas, according to a Hebrew media report Monday that said the premier anticipates that even if an agreement is reached, it will fall apart within weeks.

The Haaretz daily said that Netanyahu has held numerous meetings in recent weeks to discuss the two ministers’ expected response to a deal, against which they have campaigned intensely.

The report, which cited sources who participated in the discussions, said Netanyahu’s confidants think that in the worst case, Smotrich and Ben Gvir would withdraw from the government but remain in the coalition, preventing the government’s collapse and staving off early elections that could knock Netanyahu out of power.

In any event, Netanyahu’s confidants expect the initial six-week ceasefire, stipulated in the first phase of the deal, to eventually break down — meaning Israel and Hamas will fail to agree on the terms of the next phases — at which point Smotrich and Ben Gvir would return to the government.

The two ministers are expected to reject any proposal, Haaretz said, but their reaction to an agreement would hinge on the deal’s “flagship” issues: Israel’s right to resume hostilities and ongoing presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, separating Gaza from Egypt, and which Netanyahu has insisted on and Hamas has been rejecting.

Ben Gvir, according to the report, is expected to bolt the government after it accepts a deal, even on the most favorable terms. Smotrich, by contrast, is reportedly expected to voice opposition to the deal and insist on changes to it that would not be implemented, before joining Ben Gvir in opposition.

Depending on the timing, the far-right parties’ leave outside the government could coincide with the Knesset’s summer recess. Thus the exodus would have only symbolic effect, Haaretz said. The newspaper also noted that Netanyahu has twice before led governments propped up by parties that had left the government in protest but remained in the coalition.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a memorial ceremony for Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky at Mount Herzl in Jerusalem, on August 4, 2024. (Naama Grynbaum/POOL)

Israel’s lead negotiators are expected to attend a summit in Cairo later this week, having expressed “cautious optimism” for a deal over the weekend, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

Smotrich, the finance minister, and Ben Gvir, the national security minister, have both voiced staunch opposition to what they have termed a “reckless deal.”

The two control a cumulative 13 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, giving them outsize influence in Netanyahu’s 64-seat coalition.


The US proposal essentially corresponds to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a permanent ceasefire and a refusal to allow for the IDF to fully withdraw from Gaza, Hamas said.

Hamas under pressure to accept US hostage proposal; Cairo talks loom. (photo credit: Canva, REUTERS)
Hamas under pressure to accept US hostage proposal; Cairo talks loom.
(photo credit: Canva, REUTERS)
Hamas rejected America’s “bridging proposal” to help finalize a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel Sunday night amid a major diplomatic blitz by the Biden administration to finalize an agreement this week.

The “bridging proposal” placed new conditions on the exchange of hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel, Hamas said as he referred to Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists that would be released in the deal. Other agreements previously arrived at have been retracted, it explained.

The US proposal essentially corresponds to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a permanent ceasefire and a refusal to allow for the IDF to fully withdraw from Gaza, Hamas said.

The terror group spoke up after Netanyahu’s office released a statement that left no room for doubt as to where Netanyahu stood on the issue of a permanent ceasefire, which has been a key Hamas demand.

The Prime Minster’s Office stressed that Israel has not given up on one of its most fundamental demands, that it must be allowed to continue to battle Hamas in Gaza until such time as it has ousted the terror group from the enclave, a goal it has yet to complete ten months into the war.

 Relatives of hostages and supporters take part in a protest calling for their release in Tel Aviv (credit: REUTERS/SUSANA VERA)Enlrage image
Relatives of hostages and supporters take part in a protest calling for their release in Tel Aviv (credit: REUTERS/SUSANA VERA)

Hamas has insisted that the deal must include an Israeli agreement for a permanent ceasefire.

The US has hoped to get the deal out the door with an agreement from both sides, that the issue of a permanent ceasefire would be negotiated during phase one of the deal.

That phase would allow some 18-33 hostages to be freed during a six-week period.

PMO says Hamas retracts deans

The Prime Minister’s Office said Sunday that Hamas had retracted that demand. For months there were those that claimed “Hamas would never agree to give in on ending the war as a condition for a deal, and proposed giving in to Hamas’s demand.

“They were wrong then – and they are also wrong today. The Prime Minister has strongly insisted on this fundamental demand, which is vital to achieving the goals of the war, and Hamas changed its position,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.

It also charged that “There are serial leakers who are harming the ability to advance a deal.”

In particular, the Prime Minister’s Office stressed, that Israel wants to hold onto the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors.

“Even today, the Prime Minister insists that we remain in the Philadelphia Corridor to prevent the [Hamas] terrorists from re-arming,” Netanyahu’s office stated.

It spoke of the importance of ensuring that the maximal number of live hostages would return to Israel in the first phase of the three-phase deal US President Joe Biden unveiled on May 31.

“The Prime Minister will continue to work to promote a deal that will maximize the number of live hostages [to be returned} and that will enable the achievement of all the war’s goals,” Netanyahu’s office stressed.

The Prime Minister’s Office issued the statement after a weekend in which the United States and Israel had expressed optimism that the final stage of the hostage talks would be held in Cairo on Wednesday.

Netanyahu spoke Sunday with the team that will represent Israel at those Cairo talks, with KAN reporting that the mandate he gave the negotiators was a narrow one.

Professional-level Israeli teams were in Doha and Cairo on Sunday to continue talks for the release of the remaining 115 hostages.

Egypt and Qatar with the help of the United States have been the main mediators for the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, since the terror group led an invasion of Southern Israel on October 7 that sparked the Gaza war.

CIA Director William Burns held two days of negotiations in Doha ending Friday, with the participation of a high-level Israeli delegation led by Mossad Chief David Barnea aimed a bridging the gaps between Israel and Hamas over the hostage deal.

Erasing the gaps

During those talks, which did not directly include Hamas, the United States put what it referred to as a “bridging proposal,” which it said erased the gaps between Israel and Hamas with regard to the implementation of the May 31 proposal.

The Prime Minister’s Office statement, however, reflected an Israeli position that did not seem to have differed much from its stance before the Doha talks and after.

Among the sticking points has been Israel’s insisting that it must continue to hold a critical buffer zone area between Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, as well as another security line in central Gaza knows the Netzarim Corridor.

The Hostage and Missing Families Forum accused Netanyahu of dragging his feet on a deal, a move that comes at the expense of the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

It’s presumed that out of the 115 remaining there, 76 of whom are presumed to be alive.

The forum recalled that the maximal number of live hostages had been released during the first hostage deal in November, when 105 were freed, to underscore the point that an agreement was the best method to bring the hostages home.

“We would like to remind the Prime Minister that the absolute majority of the hostages were released in that [November] deal,” the forum stated, adding that since then the government has failed to close a second deal.

“The 115 hostages are waiting for their country to bring them home. We will not allow another failure. Until the last of the hostages returns home, one can say that the State of Israel and its leader have not done everything in their power to return them,” it said.

Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera this weekend, accused Netanyahu of not wanting to achieve an agreement.

There was an agreement, which Israel proposed and which Hamas accepted, and then Israel introduced new demands into the proposal.

Hamdan said that the agreement it supported already in July was the one put forward by Biden on May 31 and backed by the UN Security Council.

Israel’s response to Hamas’s acceptance of the deal was to assassinate its leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, he said. Israel has not taken responsibility for that killing, but it is widely presumed to be behind Haniyeh’s assassination.

Israel had already said it would withdraw from Netzarim and Phladelphi and now it doesn’t want to, he said.

Hamas, Hamdan said, wants a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.

Israel wants the right to attack Gaza, even if there is a “prisoner exchange” and that is unacceptable, Hamdan said.

“We want to push them out of Gaza in order to secure the lives of the Palestinians, and not give the Israelis the right to attack whenever they want,” he stressed.

Netanyahu, in turn, accused Hamas of refusing to accept the deal as he called for strong pressure to be leveled against it.

Pressure should be on Hamas, not Israel

“The pressure needs to be directed at Hamas and [its leader Yahya] Sinwar, not the Government of Israel,” Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly government meeting in Jerusalem on Sunday as he stressed his commitment to freeing the hostages.

“This is a national mission of the highest order,” Netanyahu told his government.

“We are holding very complex negotiations in which the other side is a murderous terrorist organization that is unbridled and obstinate,” he said.

Netanyahu defended himself against charges that he has put obstacles in the way of the deal, by standing on some principled points as he explained that it was important not to cave to every Hamas demand.

Israel is “conducting negotiations and not a scenario in which we just give and give.

“There are things we can be flexible on and there are things that we cannot be flexible on, which we will insist on. We know how to distinguish between the two very well,” he said.

“Alongside the major efforts we are making to return our hostages, we stand on the principles that we have determined, which are vital for the security of Israel,” he said.

Israel has maintained its adherence to the proposal unveiled in Washington, he said, adding that the stumbling block has been Hamas.

“Up until now, Hamas has been completely obstinate. It did not even send a representative to the talks in Doha,” Netanyahu said, adding that “strong military and diplomatic pressure is the way to secure the release of our hostages.”


The ceasefire deal sees Hamas seeking control over Gaza’s Netzarim and Philadelphi Corridors, while Israel worries about Hamas regaining power in Gaza if IDF presence is reduced.

 View of the Philadelphi Corridor between the southern Gaza Strip and Egypt, on July 15, 2024.  (photo credit: Oren Cohen/Flash90)
View of the Philadelphi Corridor between the southern Gaza Strip and Egypt, on July 15, 2024.
(photo credit: Oren Cohen/Flash90)
The current ceasefire discussions, which are based on parameters that have framed the talks since January, have several sticking points. Recent media reports point to several key issues in the ceasefire talks that could either derail them again or lead to an agreement.

At issue are several key demands of Hamas. Hamas wants Israel to leave the Netzarim Corridor, which separates Gaza City from central Gaza, and it wants Israel to leave the Philadelphi Corridor, which separates Gaza from Egypt.

The Hamas demands to be able to return armed men to northern Gaza by dismantling the IDF presence in Netzarim and be able to return to smuggling along the Egyptian border by ejecting Israel from the corridor represent the Hamas grand plan to return to power in Gaza.

It is part of the Hamas larger grand strategy of using October 7 to take over the West Bank. Hamas is already on the march in the West Bank, as evidenced by recent IDF airstrikes in the Tubas region and Jenin against Hamas key operatives. Hamas’s demands in Gaza are step one in its next stage of operations.

 An IDF vehicle in a three-meter-high tunnel found near the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza. August 4, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)Enlrage image
An IDF vehicle in a three-meter-high tunnel found near the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza. August 4, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

These demands, which have been reported in numerous media reports in the region, may not only be Hamas demands. Other countries involved in the talks, such as Qatar and Egypt, may also have interests in Gaza and in Hamas returning to control these areas. Iran, which backs Hamas, has likely advised it that it needs to find a way to return to control the Netzarim corridor and the border with Egypt.

Hamas negotiation efforts boosted by its major regional supporters 

According to reports at The Washington Post, Doha was in contact with Tehran about Iran’s threats to attack Israel over the last two weeks. Why was Doha talking to Tehran? Supposedly in order to postpone the alleged Iranian attack so that the ceasefire talks could continue. Iran would have wanted something in return. It is likely that Iran’s hand as well as other hands in the region, such as Turkey which backs Hamas, are involved in advising Hamas about what points to hold firm in the ceasefire talks.

What do we know about the sticking points of a ceasefire deal? We know Hamas is focused on a reduced presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. We know Hamas may be flexible in regards to having the Palestinian Authority have a role on the Egyptian border. Why does Hamas not mind the PA being there? Because Hamas has a long-term goal of taking over the PA, so it sees these forces as simply its own forces in waiting.

Hamas has already been working with Beijing to create a unity deal for 14 Palestinian factions that will allow it to be in the PA. Hamas is quietly backed by the PFLP and Palestinian National Initiative and other groups. It also has more and more backing by armed groups in Tulkarm, Qalkilya, Jenin and Tubas and other areas of the northern West Bank.

The main Hamas goal is to get rid of the main areas that Israel still controls in Gaza; Netzarim and Philadelphi. Israel has chosen a tactic in Gaza of clearing areas of Hamas and then leaving. Israel uses the corridors in order to move forces quickly into areas of Gaza. Israeli forces never remain for more than a few weeks, while Israel controls the two corridors across Gaza to monitor northern and southern Gaza.

Hamas in charge of around eighty percent of Gaza

In general, Israel’s campaign in Gaza since October has left Hamas in control of the central camps area of Gaza; Maghazi, Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah and Bureij; and Israel has left Hamas in charge of around eighty percent of Gaza in total.

However, the IDF acts to keep the Hamas presence reduced in northern Gaza and southern Gaza through a tactic of raids. If there is a ceasefire deal, the raids will stop. Hamas will then regrow its power in northern and southern Gaza by using its current bases in Nuseirat and Bureij and Deir al-Balah to move forces around. Many of the forces Hamas has in Khan Younis, for instance, moved there after the IDF left in April and after the Rafah operation began in May.

Israel is wary that Hamas could moved armed men from Nuseirat across the Natzarim corridor into northern Gaza. Hamas has already stepped up operations against the IDF in this corridor. It has attempted sniper attacks and also attacks using explosive devices. The goal of the Hamas campaign is low level harassment of the IDF. Hamas and other groups do the same thing, targeting the IDF in areas near Rafah. We know this because Hamas openly brags about it to pro-Iranian media.

Hamas publishes daily details about its threats to IDF forces in Netzarim and in southern Gaza. Every day that Hamas crouches in the ruins of parts of Gaza, it potentially grows stronger, and every day that the IDF has to sit and wait, it potentially can become a target. If the IDF leaves these areas, though, Hamas will take control and rapidly return in force to northern and southern Gaza. Hamas has done this before after IDF ground operations.

The key sticking points in the ceasefire talks are evidence of the Hamas plan to return to Gaza. It wants to move armed men to northern Gaza and re-establish itself in southern Gaza. The corridors prevent this. If the IDF presence is reduced or the IDF leaves, then Hamas will return. It has already returned to much of Gaza and shown how it can regrow its networks quickly.