The US-led Coalition said on Monday night that rocket fire landed on Coalition forces who are based near the city. They were likely killed and wounded at the Coalition facilities at Erbil International Airport. The Coalition spokesperson Col. Wayne Marotto wrote that one civilian contractor was killed, five injured and one US service member was injured.

The statement was crafted in such a way as to give the US a lot of outs should it choose not to respond. That is because there is a new US administration and while the Coalition wanted to put a statement out, it didn’t want to paint US Central Command or the White House into a corner. Over years covering the US-led Coalition and the former spokesperson Col. Myles Caggins III, the weight and responsibility on a spokesperson’s shoulders the night of an attack like this immense. It is almost five in the afternoon in Washington. It’s past might in Iraq. That is the time of the statement.

Now, the injuring of a US service member is important. When a US contractor was killed at K-1 base near Kirkuk in December 2019 it began a crisis and cycle that led to the US using a drone to killed IRGC head Qasem Soleimani. The US had warned Iran back then to stop rocket attacks on US bases. Iran’s militias in Iraq, directed by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and his Kataib Hezbollah, didn’t listen. They upped their attacks on US forces using 107mm Katyusha rockets.

After they killed a US contractor the US responded with airstrikes on December 29. That was. Two days after Nawres Hamid, the 33-year old American citizen had been killed. He had emigrated from Iraq to Sacramento with his family.

The US retaliated for his death. In response Badr Organizations Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Fatah Alliance party in Iraq, as well as Muhandis, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq leader Qais Khazali and Falih al-Fayyadh let protesters to attack the US embassy on January 1. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo singled out those responsible. Two days later Soleimani arrived in Baghdad to meet Muhandis to plan more attacks on the US. Before he could do it missiles fired by a US drone killed the two men.

What will the new Biden administration do now in response to the killing of a contractor and wounding of Americans. This is a serious attack. The US in March 2020 moved air defense systems to Iraq, including Patriots to Ayn al-Assad and C-RAM to Baghdad’s embassy compound. It’s not clear what else the US has to protect forces.

The US has consolidated its forces in Erbil and Assad and Baghdad, withdrawing from a dozen other facilities. The US has warned Iran in the past, in 2018, against attack on US facilities. But pro-Iran groups continue the attacks. They want the US to leave. They have been very successful so far. The US has wrapped most of its work up in Iraq.