Israeli security officials believe a deal is still likely but fear that the incoming government will jeopardize U.S.- Israeli cooperation on Iran
Israeli officials claim that U.S. leadership is still aiming to reach a nuclear deal with Iran and has the backing of the U.S. defense establishment. The claim was made despite recent footage that circulated on social media of U.S. President Joe Biden saying the deal was “dead”.
The Israeli officials claim that the U.S. understands that it will be difficult for the Iranian regime to quell the recent protests in Iran without improving the economic situation and therefore the nuclear deal may be in the Iranian’s interest.
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A nuclear deal with Iran received widespread support in the U.S. until Iran supported Russia in its war with Ukraine and signed arms deals with them. This made it even more difficult to resume nuclear deal negotiations. Israeli officials were quick to celebrate Biden’s statement that the deal was dead, but the security establishment is showing caution and treating the president’s words as a slip of the tongue rather than a statement of fact. U.S. Administration officials that spoke to Haaretz and have knowledge of the matter said that in conversations with senior U.S. officials, they gave the impression that despite the challenging situation a significant twist in the nuclear deal was coming within in a few months.
During the Lapid-Bennett government, Israeli officials began closed discussions to evaluate Israel’s preparation for a military conflict with Iran. An official with knowledge of the issue said the situation advanced to such an extent that they were entrusted with the task of preparing new operational plans, prepare a budget for arms purchases and acquire special equipment required for such a campaign. The outgoing government reserved a massive budget of billions of dollars for attacking Iran, purchased advanced weaponry, and tightened military relations with the U.S., Gulf states and other allies. Nonetheless, an Israeli official told Haaretz that “Israel has no practical capacity to attack Iran effectively without the support and cooperation of the U.S., and anyone who says otherwise is willfully lying.”
