Israel is planning to carry out a series of preemptive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming months, American intelligence officials predict.
According to a report published by The Washington Post early Thursday morning, a dossier produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency last month claims that Israel will likely carry out strikes on several Iranian nuclear facilities sometime during the first half of 2025.
Specifically, the report claimed that the Israeli Air Force will probably strike at the nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.
Thursday’s report, which cited American officials and former U.S. officials, said that the January dossier was based in part on an analysis of Israel’s strikes on Iran’s air defense network in October, following Iran’s second major ballistic missile strike on the Jewish state.
Israel and various American intel agencies, including the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Director of National Intelligence’s office all declined to comment on the report.
White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in response that the Trump administration “will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”
President Trump, Hughes continued, has said that “while he prefers negotiating a resolution to American’s long-standing issues with the Iranian regime peacefully, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to deal, and soon.”
The January dossier laid out two possible scenarios, both of which could see the U.S. indirectly support Israeli airstrikes on Iran with either airborne refueling of Israeli warplanes, reconnaissance, or intelligence.
The first scenario revolves around the use of long-range standoff weapons, likely aerial-launched ballistic missiles fired from Israeli fighter jets operating outside of Iranian airspace.
The second and riskier option would involve Israeli warplanes penetrating deep into Iran’s airspace to drop BLU-109 bunker buster bombs.
Depending in part on the form Israel’s airstrikes take and the degree to which they succeed, preemptive strikes would push back Iran’s nuclear program by a matter of weeks or months, the U.S. intel dossier said.
However, one former American official told the Post that Israel’s assessment of the impact of potential airstrikes differs significantly with that of the U.S. intel community, with Israeli officials arguing that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could inflict catastrophic damage on Tehran’s nuclear program.
“That was a difference between our intelligence and their assessment,” the official said.
