Axios says US doesn’t believe Iranian strike imminent; Israeli source: Chances ‘less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk’; IDF, CENTCOM chiefs said to discuss threat
Israel has warned the Trump administration that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be using an ongoing military exercise focusing on missiles as cover to launch an attack on Israel, according to a Sunday report, amid fears that Jerusalem and Tehran are readying for another confrontation.
Citing Israeli and US sources, the Axios news site reported that Israel has a much lower risk tolerance after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, and noted that Jerusalem issued similar warnings six weeks ago when it identified similar movements of Iranian missiles, though nothing came of it.
“The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50 percent, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” an Israeli source was quoted as saying.
However, the US intelligence community has not seen any signs that an Iranian strike could be imminent, an American source told the outlet.
According to the sources quoted by Axios, the highest risk of war breaking out between the two regional enemy countries comes from a potential “miscalculation,” with each side thinking that other is preparing for attack and moving to preempt it.
The report added that both Mossad and the IDF’s Military Intelligence do not assess that the current pace of Iran’s rearmament necessitates immediate action, but they believe the problem could become more urgent in several months.
According to Axios, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir called US Central Command head Adm. Bradley Cooper on Saturday and voiced Israel’s concerns about Iranian military exercises.
The two then met in Tel Aviv on Sunday, the report added, where Zamir urged close coordination between the US and Israeli militaries on defensive preparations.
The IDF declined to comment on the report, and CENTCOM did not respond to the outlet’s request to comment.
Zamir on Sunday warned publicly that the IDF will strike Israel’s enemies “wherever required, on near and distant fronts alike,” apparently hinting that Israel may again need to attack in Iran.
“Iran is the one that financed and armed the ring of strangulation around Israel and stood behind the plans for its destruction,” he said at a changeover ceremony for the head of the IDF Planning Directorate, referring to the terror proxies that Tehran built up in the region.
Zamir’s comments came a day after NBC News reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will present plans for a new potential attack on Iran to US President Donald Trump during his upcoming visit to the United States.
According to the report, which cited several unnamed officials with knowledge of the matter, Israel is growing increasingly concerned that Iran is rebuilding and even expanding its ballistic missile production in the wake of the nations’ 12-day war in June.
“The threat of the missiles is very real, and we weren’t able to prevent them all last time,” a source said.
A source with knowledge on the matter, as well as former US officials, told NBC that Jerusalem believes Iran’s renewed production of ballistic missiles could increase to 3,000 per year if left unchecked.
Perhaps lending credence to Israel’s concerns, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed Sunday that his country was “fully prepared” for a new round of fighting if it comes, and that it has rebuilt its strategic facilities damaged during the June war.
Israel launched its war against Iran in June targeting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and citing an imminent existential threat.
Over 12 days, successive waves of airstrikes killed Iranian nuclear scientists, took out much of the supply and production capacity for the missile program, and damaged uranium enrichment sites, with the US joining in the last days to take out underground nuclear facilities that only heavy bunker-buster bombs could penetrate.
Iran said over 1,000 people were killed by Israeli strikes in the war. It retaliated by launching over 500 ballistic missiles and around 1,100 drones at Israel, which killed 32 people and wounded over 3,000 in Israel, according to health officials and hospitals.
In all, Israel suffered 36 missile impacts and one drone strike in populated areas, causing damage to 2,305 homes in 240 buildings, along with two universities and a hospital, and leaving over 13,000 Israelis displaced.
