US threatens Iran but still seeks JCPOA revival

If the path to a return to compliance with the agreement turns out to be a dead-end, we will pursue other options,’ US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF, REUTERS Published: DECEMBER 4, 2021 19:32
Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2021 22:07

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria, December 3, 2021.

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria, December 3, 2021. (photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

(photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria, December 3, 2021.

A general view of Palais Coburg, the site of a meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in Vienna, Austria, November 29, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)
(photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

The United States warned it would thwart Tehran’s nuclear program but held fast to its hope of a revival of the 2015 agreement with Iran after negotiations in Vienna failed to make any progress over the weekend.
“If the path to a return to compliance with the agreement turns out to be a dead-end, we will pursue other options,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after completion of the seventh round of indirect talks led by the European Union.
“Iran right now does not seem to be serious about doing what’s necessary to return to compliance, which is why we ended this round of talks in Vienna,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the virtual Reuters Next Conference.
On Saturday a senior US official warned that time was running out to resurrect the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. He added that it was unclear when an eighth round of talks would be held, even as European negotiators spoke of the resumption of negations next week.
The Trump administration, with Israel’s support, had left the deal in 2018. US President Joe Biden has sought to resurrect the deal that was initially signed between Tehran and the six world powers; the US, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany.

The JCPOA’s viability is dependent on how fast Iran accelerates its nuclear program, the US official said. Iran has continued to advance toward the enrichment of weapons-grade uranium during the talks, a move that has made even the JCPOA’s proponents questioning whether the deal can be resumed.
The factor would determine if the JCPOA’s revival is not a chronological clock but a technical one, the US official explained.
At this point, he said, the Biden administration still believes the deal can be saved.
Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz is set to visit Washington this week to discuss Iran. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Blinken on Thursday about Israel’s concerns with respect to the deal.
The US official told reporters on Saturday, that it agreed with Israel on the need to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, even as it disagreed with it tactically. The US official, noted, however, that even Israelis at this point were questioning the wisdom of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal.
“We are seeing, I don’t know if I want to call it soul searching or interesting reflections in Israel by former senior officials about the decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and what it has meant,” the US official said.
He explained that he believed that it meant that the door was opened for an “unconstrained, uncontrolled Iran nuclear program, which was not the case while the US and Iran were both in compliance with the deal.”
The US official added: “I think the conversations we are having with Israel, are always interesting and always important, we strive to remain as transparent and as well-coordinated with Israel as possible, but it is taking place against the backdrop that we all need to take into account, which is to learn the lessons of the preceding three years.”
Conversations with Israel, the US official said, come with this “context in mind.”
The seventh round of talks in Vienna was the first with delegates sent by Iran’s anti-Western President Ebrahim Raisi on how to resuscitate the agreement under which Iran limited its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.
Raisi’s election in June caused a five-month hiatus in the talks, heightening suspicions among US and European officials that Iran is playing for time while advancing its nuclear program.
Diplomats said the Iranian delegation had proposed sweeping changes to a text that was painstakingly negotiated in previous rounds and that European officials had said was 70-80% finished.
“Over five months ago, Iran interrupted negotiations. Since then, Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program. This week, it has backtracked on diplomatic progress made,” senior officials from France, Britain and Germany said in a statement, adding that Iran was demanding “major changes” to the text.
It is “unclear how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic time frame,” they added.
The three European powers expressed “disappointment and concern” at Iran’s demands, some of which they said were incompatible with the deal’s terms or went beyond them.
The 2015 agreement imposed strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, extending the amount of time it would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, if it chose to, to at least a year from around two to three months. Most experts say that period is now shorter than before the deal.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, saying it only wants to master nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
In exchange for the nuclear restrictions, the 2015 deal lifted many US, European Union and UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Former US President Donald Trump reimposed painful US economic sanctions on Tehran after he pulled out of the deal.
Tehran retaliated in 2019 by breaching many of the deal’s limits on enrichment and other restrictions, and advancing well beyond them. With the deal’s nuclear benefits now badly eroded, some Western officials say there is little time left before the foundation of the deal is damaged beyond repair.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he thought it likely the current round of talks would not succeed and appeared to look beyond them, hinting at involving more nations, such as Gulf Arab states, in a wider discussion if the Vienna talks fail.
“I think it’s very difficult to find an agreement if the Gulf countries, Israel, all those whose security is directly affected, don’t take part,” he told reporters in Dubai.
Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani’s uncompromising stance is that since Washington left the deal, it should make the first move by lifting all sanctions imposed on Tehran since then, even those unrelated to Tehran’s nuclear activities.
Bagheri Kani told Reuters on Monday the United States and its Western allies also should offer guarantees to Iran that no new sanctions would be imposed on it in future.
However, he left the door ajar for more talks by saying European nations could propose their own drafts for discussion, Iranian state media reported.
Western negotiators take a return to the original deal as their baseline, meaning if Iran wants sanctions relief beyond it, Tehran should accept more nuclear restrictions.
The talks have been held indirectly, with the EU engaging in shuttle diplomacy in Vienna.
On Saturday night, Iranian air defenses fired a missile as part of an exercise on Saturday over the central town of Natanz, which houses nuclear installations, state TV reported, after local residents reported hearing a large blast.
The reports said air defense units fired the missile to test a rapid reaction force over Natanz.
“Such exercises are carried out in a completely secure environment … and there is no cause for concern,” Army spokesman Shahin Taqikhani told state TV.
Iranian news agencies earlier reported a large explosion in the sky above Natanz but said there was no official explanation of the incident.
The semi-official Fars news agency quoted its reporter in nearby Badroud as saying a short blast was heard which was accompanied by an intense light in the sky.


David Barnea says agency will ‘do everything needed to alleviate threat,’ but air force head won’t say if Israel can destroy Iran’s program and report claims IDF has no strike plan

 

Israeli F-35 fighter jets fly in formation during the military's Blue Flag exercise in October 2021. (Israel Defense Forces)

Israeli F-35 fighter jets fly in formation during the military’s Blue Flag exercise in October 2021. (Israel Defense Forces)

The head of the Mossad spy agency said Thursday that a bad nuclear deal between world powers and Iran would be “intolerable” for Israel, vowing that the Islamic Republic will never acquire nuclear weapons.

“It’s clear that there’s no need for uranium enriched to 60 percent for civilian purposes,” David Barnea said during a ceremony at the President’s Residence to honor exceptional Mossad agents. “There’s no need for three enrichment sites. There’s no need for thousands of active centrifuges — unless, that is, there is an intention to develop nuclear weapons.”

“A bad deal, which I hope will not be made, is intolerable to us,” he added. “Iran is striving for regional hegemony, wages terrorism that we are blocking every day around the world, and is continuously threatening stability in the Middle East.”

“Our eyes are open, we are prepared, and we will do with our partners in the security establishment everything that is necessary to alleviate the threat against Israel and thwart it by any means,” Barnea said.

“Iran will not have nuclear weapons — not in the coming years, not ever. That is my promise, that is Mossad’s promise.”

Barnea’s comments came as negotiations resumed in Vienna between Iran and world powers on restoring the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

From left to right: Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, President Isaac Herzog and Mossad chief David Barnea light Hanukkah candles at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem, December 2, 2021. (Haim Zach/GPO)

Israel vocally opposed that deal and has urged the Biden administration — which is seeking to rejoin the accord — to end the talks, charging that Iran is using the negotiations to buy time to advance its nuclear work.

Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60% purity, which is just a short technical jump from weapons-grade, and far exceeds the cap set in the 2015 nuclear deal. There is no civilian use for 90% enriched uranium.

Israel has lobbied for its allies to scrap the 2015 deal altogether, instead seeking a better arrangement or heavy sanctions backed by a credible military threat.

In this image made from April 17, 2021, video released by the Islamic Republic Iran Broadcasting, IRIB, state-run TV, various centrifuge machines line the hall damaged on April 11, 2021, at the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, some 200 miles (322 km) south of the capital Tehran. (IRIB via AP, File)

Asked about plans for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear sites during a rare television interview aired Thursday, Air Force head Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the IDF was prioritizing preparations for such a possibility.

However, he did not directly respond when asked by Channel 13 news if the air force can fully neutralize the threat of a nuclear Iran.

“We always need to be ready with a military option and therefore this has become high priority,” he said.

“We make mistakes; we’re improving,” said Norkin, while remaining evasive when asked about the Israeli Air Force’s capabilities and the immediate threat posed by Iran.

Norkin compared Israel to an “insurance policy” against Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb. But asked if that insurance policy would need to be exercised, he said: “We’ll do whatever is required.”

Israeli Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin speaks at the Israel Aviation Conference at Airport City, May 2, 2018 (Tomer Neuberg/FLASH90)

The Walla news site reported Thursday that Israel does not currently have operative plans to strike Iran’s nuclear program.

The report, which did not cite sources, said the military was working on plans of action should a strike become necessary, but that training for such a mission has not yet begun, and will take several months to complete.

Once those are complete, the Israel Defense Forces will be able to provide Israeli leaders with a detailed military option, the report said.

Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid told French President Emmanuel Macron that only a credible military threat will stop Iran’s nuclear program. Senior Israeli officials have blitzed their counterparts in the US, UK, France and Germany in recent days in a bid to lobby against nuclear talks with Iran, which kicked off Monday after an extended hiatus.

The Biden administration has repeatedly reiterated its desire to return to the 2015 agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which former president Donald Trump exited. Following its exit, the US began reinstating sanctions on Tehran while Iran began to openly breach the deal’s terms.

The Biden administration has repeatedly said that it would only lift sanctions in return for concrete and evident changes in Iran’s behavior, and that not all sanctions would be lifted.


Gantz: Israel May Someday ‘Have No Choice But to Act’ on Iran

 

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz says he believes the United States will “stand behind its promise . . . and responsibility” not to let Iran obtain nuclear weapons.

Speaking in a video interview with the Ynet news outlet, Gantz said, however, that he does think “we always have to prepare the option for the moment when we may find ourselves alone. I say again, an attack [on Iran] is an option.

“It doesn’t have to be the first one.”

Gantz said if talks between Tehran and world powers fail to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal in a way that would stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, there may eventually come a time when “the world, the region and the State of Israel will have no choice but to act – and it could happen.”

The defense minister is expected to fly to the United States next week (overnight on Wednesday) for an official visit during which he will conduct a series of meetings centered on security issues.

Gantz is scheduled to meet with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.