Biden brings out Obama’s echo chamber, puts Israel on defense – opinion

Author: Published: April 10, 2021

While each of these American actions may have standalone rationalizations, the cumulative effect is to put Israel on the defensive – and I think that is exactly what the administration intends.

By DAVID M. WEINBERG

APRIL 9, 2021 19:45
US President-elect Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (photo credit: ANDREW HARNIK/YOAV DUDUKEVITCH/REUTERS)
US President-elect Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
(photo credit: ANDREW HARNIK/YOAV DUDUKEVITCH/REUTERS)
 In March 2012, unnamed US diplomats and military intelligence officials exposed IDF and Mossad activities in Azerbaijan, a Muslim country that borders Iran. “The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior administration official was quoted as telling Foreign Policy magazine, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”

This Obama-administration orchestrated leak – the “outing” of Israel’s covert capabilities in Azerbaijan – was meant to scuttle the possibility of an Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities from former Soviet air bases near Baku, only 500 km. from Tehran. Of course, Azerbaijan was forced to deny any Israeli presence and then scale back whatever intelligence or military basing Israel had there.
It was an ugly and underhanded move by the Obama administration.
This was followed by the “Bibi-sitting project,” a hand-holding exercise that saw senior American officials visiting Israel every month to keep tabs on the Netanyahu government’s thinking and planning, and to reassure Israel that Washington was taking Israel’s security interests into account. It wasn’t. It was babysitting Israel (“Bibi-sitting”) to make sure that Israel did not interfere with Obama’s rotten accord-making with Iran.
As the contours of the controversial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran later emerged, the Obama administration launched a hostile whispering campaign about Israel and its Jewish allies in the US (orchestrated by then-president Obama’s aide, deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes).
 Israel was standing in the way of an “amicable nuclear deal” with Iran and “dragging the US into war” – it was alleged. American Jews, Republicans, and others opposed to the soft deal with Iran were accused of disloyalty to America; of favoring Israeli interests over crucial US security interests.
The pro-Iran-deal chorus was mobilized to repeat these messages. Rhodes himself braggingly highlighted the “echo chamber” he created for this purpose, which encompassed journalists, left-wing think tanks, and other opinion leaders. Rhodes boasted that he snowed the “know nothing” media and the American public with a misleading narrative about the timeline of Washington’s negotiations with Tehran and other key facets of the deal.
ALAS, IT SEEMS that the Biden administration is using the same playbook to sideline Israel in the context of Washington’s current talks with Iran to reengage the JCPOA.
Instead of “full and close coordination” with Israel and America’s Arab allies regarding Iran that was promised by the new administration, we are getting disinformation, deflection, and early signs of a defamation campaign coming from Washington.
This week, an “American official” outed an Israeli commando strike on a ship used as an intel sea base by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the Red Sea off the coasts of Yemen and Djibouti. Biden administration sources leaked the story to The New York Times, clearly accusing Israel of causing trouble while nuclear peace talks with Iran were underway.
Prime Minister Netanyahu understood exactly what the administration was trying to do, and he responded immediately. “We have to curb Iranian aggression in our region, and this threat is not a theoretical matter,” he said. “We know how to defend ourselves by ourselves from those who seek to kill us.”
And in case anybody misunderstood the context, Netanyahu added that “the danger that Iran will return – and this time with an international imprimatur – to a path that will allow it to develop a nuclear arsenal, is on our doorstep on this very day. We cannot go back to the dangerous nuclear plan.”
US deflection of Israel’s concerns about Iran was expressed this week in additional ways. Secretary of State Tony Blinken called Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to vent about Palestinian human and civil rights “that must be equal with those of Israelis.” Then the administration announced plans to refund the Palestinians to the tune of $250 million, including renewal of aid through the corrupt UNRWA.
Then the administration announced plans to rejoin the horribly-hostile-to-Israel UNHRC, and to revoke sanctions against the prosecutor of the ICC (even though she just launched an outrageous “criminal investigation” into Israel).
At the same time, the administration has distanced itself from the Abraham Accords and has frozen some of promises made by President Trump’s administration to Arab countries that committed themselves to peace with Israel.
While each of these American actions may have standalone rationalizations, the cumulative effect is to put Israel on the defensive – and I think that is exactly what the administration intends. Israel is being warned not to be too pushy about Iran policy, or else the administration can pester Israel diplomatically in ways that will pinch.
Next week, the Biden administration also is launching its own “Bibi-sitting” exercise, with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin coming to soothe the concerns of Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz. It is not at all coincidental that this first cabinet-level visit of a Biden administration official comes at the time that talks with the Iranians are taking place (publicly in Vienna, and perhaps secretly elsewhere too).
I hope that Austin is authorized to discuss real policy with Jerusalem, not just hold the hands of Netanyahu and Gantz and warn them to back off.
And then there are some early signs of a defamation campaign coming from Washington. Joe Cirincione penned an NBC News op-ed this week in which he warned against the return of the old anti-Iran-deal “coalition,” including hawks in Congress, the leaders of Israel and Saudi Arabia, and by insinuation also Evangelical Christians and American Jews, whose “money and influence” could ruin everything for the Biden administration.
This is another way of saying, in thinly veiled sophisticate-speak: Get the damn Jews and Israelis and their allies the hell off our back while we responsible statesmen loyal to Biden (and Obama) get our nuclear deal with Iran back on track.
Cirincione is a fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (a fiercely left-wing new think tank funded by George Soros) and a former president of the Ploughshares Fund which lavishly supported the original Iran deal campaign. He may be a bellwether of more hostile messaging to come.
In fact, after the administration leaked news of the “Israeli strike” on the IRGC ship in the Red Sea, Cirincione tweeted something to the effect that once again Israel is driving towards war. By implication he was accusing Israel of dragging the US into war too.
Beware: Obama’s echo chamber is coming back in the service of Biden to bash Bibi and endorse another awful nuclear deal with Iran.
The writer is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, jiss.org.il. His personal site is davidmweinberg.com.

Iran testing nuclear-capable missiles, Israeli envoy warns: report

Author: Published: April 9, 2021

i24NEWS

An Iranian missile being fired during the last day of the air defence exercise of 'Aseman Velayat 99', in an unidentified location in Iran, image released on October 22, 2020.
IRANIAN ARMY OFFICE / AFPAn Iranian missile being fired during the last day of the air defence exercise of ‘Aseman Velayat 99’, in an unidentified location in Iran, image released on October 22, 2020.

Israel’s US, UN envoy Erdan warns of Iran’s violations amid renewed push for revitalizing 2015 deal

Israel warned the global community that Iran is testing nuclear-capable missiles amid the efforts to revitalize the 2015 nuclear accord, Israel Hayom reported on Friday.

The newspaper cited a letter penned by Israel’s envoy to the US and the UN Gilad Erdan to the UN Security Council and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

In the letter, he warns of the missile tests conducted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in recent months and calls for international condemnation of those, as such moves are banned under the 2015 accord.

Iran’s military drills in January included launches of various missiles, the letter warned; among those were Sejjil and Qader ballistic missiles capable of delivering a 650-kilogram warhead to a target within a range of 2,000 kilometers.

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Such progress, Erdan warned, as cited by Israel Hayom, only points to a link between Iran’s space and missile programs.

The report comes after the US and Iran began indirect talks in the Austrian capital of Vienna earlier this week with European mediation.

After the talks, both sides voiced tacit optimism, with a new round slated for Friday.

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Dispute over Nile dam project may lead to military conflict

Author: Published: April 9, 2021

As negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over Addis Ababa’s massive dam reach impasse some analysts believe military confrontation is imminent.

By MOHAMMAD AL-KASSIM/THE MEDIA LINE

APRIL 9, 2021 03:24
ETHIOPIA’S GRAND Renaissance Dam undergoes construction work on the Nile River in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, on September 26. (Tiksa Negeri/File Photo/Reuters) (photo credit: TIKSA NEGERI / REUTERS)
ETHIOPIA’S GRAND Renaissance Dam undergoes construction work on the Nile River in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, on September 26. (Tiksa Negeri/File Photo/Reuters)
(photo credit: TIKSA NEGERI / REUTERS)
Talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over Addis Ababa’s disputed dam on the Nile River has reached a political impasse, amid rising concerns that the crisis may turn into a military conflict.

The latest round of talks that ended this week failed to reach an agreement.
Ethiopian Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy Seleshi Bekele said on Wednesday that his country would continue filling the dam’s massive reservoir during the upcoming rainy season, which normally begins in June or July.
“As construction progresses, filling takes place,” Bekele said. “We don’t deviate from that at all.”
That sparked an angry response from neighboring Sudan, whose irrigation minister warned that his country is ready to harden its position in the dispute.
“For Sudan, all options are possible, including returning [the matter] to the United Nations Security Council and hardening policy … (if) Ethiopia embarks on a second filling (of the dam) without agreement,” Yasser Abbas told reporters.
Sudanese independent journalist Mohamed Mustafa told The Media Line that the failure of the three countries to reach an agreement was because all parties are suspicious of one other.
“The main points of contention are the binding legal agreement. Ethiopia fears that the agreement will restrict its future water projects; while Sudan and Egypt insist on signing an ‘agreement,’” Mustafa said, adding that another sticking point is “the period of filling the dam and how to operate during periods of drought.”
Egyptian apprehension that the dam will jeopardize its share of the river’s water led President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to make a stern warning to Ethiopia last week, saying his country’s portion of the Nile is “untouchable.”
William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst at International Crisis Group, told The Media Line that an Egyptian and Sudanese “early agreement on how to cooperate over the second filling would have averted the increase in diplomatic tensions we are seeing now and lessened the chances of damage in Sudan as a result of the process.”
Sisi’s rhetoric has raised speculation that a military confrontation is imminent.
Cameron Hudson, senior fellow, at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, told The Media Line that the heightened rhetoric is intended for domestic consumption.
“Much of the rhetoric we are seeing around the dam from all sides is directed more to internal audiences than to the other parties. For Ethiopia and Egypt especially, these issues have stirred up deep nationalist sentiment and both leaders are using this issue to bolster their own political positions,” he said.
Hudson adds that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is under tremendous internal pressure, including revolts from several regions within the country as well as national elections in June, and this has played a role in his stance.
Davison says a military confrontation will not yield the best results for the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
“The best way for Egypt and Sudan to sustainably secure their required water supplies is by formalizing cooperation with Ethiopia. An airstrike may delay the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s completion, but it would be hugely damaging and risky, and it would not alter the hydrological situation. Moreover, subsequently Ethiopia would not be willing to cooperate with Egypt, so it is not at all clear how it would be in Egypt’s interest,” he said.
Martin Plaut, visiting senior fellow at King’s College Department of War Studies in London, told The Media Line that for now “it’s a political issue.” But Plaut cautions about where these countries are headed, saying that “I’m afraid at the end, a military issue.”
Plaut, who for decades reported on the Horn of Africa and southern Africa as a journalist, says that Sisi’s repeated talk of a possible military strike may have put himself in a predicament.

“He is now in a situation where he didn’t do anything other than give lots of threats and, frankly, we now have to see if he will follow through. Somebody has got to act; something has to happen. If you make threats and they are empty, you seem to be weak,” he said.
Ethiopia began construction of the $4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011. When complete, it will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa, as well as the 7th largest dam in the world. The mega-dam has a capacity of 74 billion cubic meters.
In his strongest statements to date, Sisi cautioned that if Ethiopia begins its second filling of the reservoir this summer, the region will face “instability that no one can imagine.”
“No one can take a single drop of water from Egypt, and whoever wants to try it, let him try,” Sisi also said. “No one imagines that it will be far from our capabilities.”
Mustafa believes that Sisi’s recent talk of war are intended as a “threatening message to Ethiopia.”
“The option of war isn’t on the table yet and entails many risks. Perhaps the next step will be resorting to the UN Security Council,” said Mustafa.
Egypt and Sudan have called for the US, UN and EU to mediate in addition to the African Union (AU), which sponsored this week’s talks, but Ethiopia strongly opposes international intervention and says the AU mediation is sufficient.
“They believe that they have a stronger negotiating position with the AU in the lead. As the host for the AU headquarters, Ethiopia has substantial influence with the AU and believes they will likely get more fair treatment under AU mediation,” said Hudson, who noted that domestic conflicts in Ethiopia influenced its decision.
“Because of the government’s actions in Tigray, we have seen the US, EU, and UN take a very tough position on Abiy, going so far as to threaten him with sanctions,” he said.
The government in Addis Ababa has branded the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), long the dominant party in Tigray, a “criminal clique.” It began a military crackdown on the group last November that some have called an ethnic cleansing.
With news of atrocities committed by Addis Ababa’s federal troops, Hudson says Abiy suspects the international community may have “difficulty separating these issues,” forcing him to agree to a compromise on the dam that will hurt his chances in the June elections.
Egypt is concerned that once the dam is fully operational, it will cut off Cairo’s supply of the Nile’s waters, which meets around 97% of its water needs. Last year, Sudan said the filling process caused water shortages including in the capital Khartoum.
Ethiopia says power produced by the GERD will be vital to meet the development needs of its 110 million residents.
But, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi told reporters Tuesday that Addis Ababa “threatens the people of the Nile basin, and Sudan directly.”
Khartoum and Cairo claim that the massive water reservoir poses an existential threat.
“We are talking about taking into account all 250 million souls who live in the three countries and their interests,” said al-Mahdi.
Davison warns that if the countries don’t reach an agreement that puts everyone’s concerns at ease, the results will be catastrophic.
“The dam carries risks for downstream countries if there’s no cooperation, but if there is then there is no reason why the dam should cause significant harm. Therefore, a failure by all parties to make the concessions needed to achieve a compromise increases the risk from the project,” he said.

More talks are scheduled for later this month.

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