Are we witnessing a geopolitical realignment in the Middle East?

Saudi Arabia is likely to be the next country to sign an agreement with Israel.

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump gave his major foreign policy speech addressing Muslims and Arabs in 2017 in Riyadh.  Trump and first lady Melania Trump are welcomed by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud at Al Murabba Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in 2017.  (photo credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD/REUTERS)
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump gave his major foreign policy speech addressing Muslims and Arabs in 2017 in Riyadh. Trump and first lady Melania Trump are welcomed by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud at Al Murabba Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in 2017.
(photo credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD/REUTERS)
The signing of normalization of relations with Israel by two Arab Gulf countries: United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on September 15 at White House in presence of US President Donald Trump gives the impression that there is going to be geopolitical realignment in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is likely to be the next country to sign an agreement with Israel. Qatar is possibly the only Gulf country remaining aloof from signing normalization of relation with Israel. Qatar has had disputes with rest of the countries in the Gulf recently. As a matter of fact, these countries have blocked Qatar. On the other hand, Qatar holds the opinion that the core conflict between Palestinians and Israel is about the drastic condition that the Palestinians are living under as people without a state. Normalizing ties with Israel does not mean normalizing relations with Palestinians.

Having signed a normalizing relation with both the UAE and Bahrain, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the deals are a pivot of history. It heralded a new dawn of peace, while Trump celebrated deals that established relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.

This realignment is possibly directed against Islamic Republic of Iran, which has alignment with Syria, Iraq, Qatar and Turkey. Recently, Qatar has had bitter relations with other Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, plus Egypt and Jordan, cut off diplomatic relations with Qatar on flimsy ground on in 2017.Qatar has a relationship with Islamic Republic of Iran. Against the realignment, there is no doubt that the beneficiary is expected to be the State of Israel. Meanwhile, Russia came forward to say that peace in the Middle East depends on the revival of the Quartet to make peace efforts. Quartet comprises of the EU, Russia, UN and US – formed in 2002 by US president George Bush.

US President Donald Trump is apparently working against the nuclear deal of his predecessor, Barack Obama – who had succeeded in bringing Iran under agreement from re-framing building of nuclear bombs. The agreement was signed by five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, on November 24, 2013, while the International Atomic Energy agency certified on January 16, 2016, that Iran complied with necessary steps from acquiring nuclear bombs. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump are on the same boat with respect to Iran. Both of them do not subscribe to the opinion of the IAEA that Iran has been complying rules in respect of acquiring bombs.

The present alignment in the Middle East has the backing of Saudi Arabia, whose enemy is Islamic Republic of Iran. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is apparently taking reprisal against Obama, who was behind nuclear agreement with Iran. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same boat. It is relevant to note that Trump was accorded royal reception while he visited after assuming his role as president. Trump is the first US president to visit Saudi Arabia, followed by the State of Israel. Trump was accorded a rousing reception while he was awarded the highest national award of King Abdul Aziz Saud gold medal. Trump gave his major foreign policy speech addressing Muslims and Arabs in 2017 in Riyadh.

By now, Trump has threatened Iran from re-framing or attacking the US in reprisal for America’s killing Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Trump threatened Iran on April 22 to refrain from harassing American oil tankers. In fact, economic sanctions remain against Iran by the US, but the International Monetary Fund forecast against Iranian oil industry predict zero growth by 2020.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is reported to have stated that its arch rival faces maximum isolation after major powers dismissed a US declaration that UN sanction of Iran were back in force under a “snapback mechanism,” while France, Great Britain and Germany dismissed the assertion. Rouhani is expected to rid out the storm caused by such sanction.

The writer is a retired diplomat from Bangladesh and former president of Nova Toastmaster International Club of America.


Sudanese deputy head of state Gen. Mohammad Hamdan Daglo, however, insists relations will stop short of full normalization, indicates split with civilian leaders

 

Sudanese deputy head of state Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti, discusses normalization with Israel in Juba, South Sudan (Screenshot: Youtube)

Sudanese deputy head of state Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti, discusses normalization with Israel in Juba, South Sudan (Screenshot: Youtube)

A senior Sudanese leader said Friday that his country would likely soon establish ties with Jerusalem, saying that Khartoum needed Israel and would benefit from relations.

“Israel is developed. The entire world works with Israel. For development, for agriculture — we need Israel,” Sudanese deputy head of state Gen. Mohammad Hamdan Daglo, known popularly as Hemedti, told Sudan24 TV in Juba.

However, Daglo said the ties would fall short of full normalization, out of solidarity with the Palestinians.

“We’re not scared of anyone. But these will be relations, not normalization. Relations, not normalization. Okay? We’re following this line,” Daglo said, without giving a timeframe or specifying what, exactly, the difference between relations and normalization would be.

Daglo’s remarks come against the background of a United States-led efforts to pressure Sudan into normalizing ties with Israel in exchange for a commitment of financial aid and its removal from a US blacklist of state sponsors of terror; its position on the blacklist subjects it to crippling economic sanctions.

If Sudan does establish open relations with Israel, it would become the third country to make an agreement with the Jewish state in the past month. The United Arab Emirates — one of Sudan’s key patrons — and Bahrain signed normalization agreements with Israel in mid-September as part of the US-mediated Abraham Accords.

Israeli officials have long expressed a wish for better relations with Khartoum, the birthplace of the Arab League’s famous 1967 resolution against peace and normalization with Israel. The administration of US President Donald Trump, for its part, has reportedly sought to achieve another foreign policy win before the upcoming presidential elections in November.

Negotiations held in Abu Dhabi last week seeking a breakthrough on normalization seemingly bore little fruit. The Sudanese delegation, led by head of state Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called the talks “frank and honest” but did not elaborate on their content.

Daglo is al-Burhan’s deputy — one of the most powerful and feared figures in Sudan. Since 2013, he has commanded a paramilitary known as Rapid Support Forces: a coalition of militias known as Janjaweed, who became internationally notorious for their complicity in the genocide in Darfur.

In this photo from July 17, 2019, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo signs a power sharing document with Sudan’s pro-democracy movement and the ruling military council in Khartoum, Sudan. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Hjaj, File)

Daglo’s comments, however, could indicate that it is still possible that Sudan might establish open ties with Israel in the coming days.  Daglo said that it was clear to the Sudanese leadership that exiting the US State Sponsors of Terror list was conditional on establishing ties with Israel.

“It’s true, the Palestinian cause is important, and we ought to stand with the Palestinian people,” Daglo said, stressing that Sudan was still committed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

But he suggested that ultimately Sudan would have to think of its own “pockets,” given the difficult economic situation in the country. “Whatever the interest of Sudan is, we shall pursue it,” Daglo vowed.

While declining to call open relations with Israel “normalization,” Daglo told Sudan24 that Sudan would benefit from ties with the Jewish state.

“We’re not talking about normalization. We’re talking about relations. And these are relations from which we will benefit; this will be done with the consent and consultation of all parties,” Daglo said.

The interviewer asked Daglo how he planned to overcome the insistence by civilian government officials, including Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, that the transitional government did not have a mandate to normalize with Israel.

Sudan’s new Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok speaks during a press conference in Khartoum, Sudan, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2019. (AP)

“There are some political factions which…” the interviewer said, before Daglo interrupted him.

“The political factions aren’t the Sudanese people, right? Let’s do a survey. What’s the problem? We’re for democracy. We’re for a diversity of opinions, no problem. Let’s do a survey,” Daglo said.

Daglo’s comments could indicate a serious split between the military and civilian players in Sudan’s fragile transitional government.

In 2019, millions of Sudanese citizens demonstrated in the streets against the thirty-year long reign of dictator Omar al-Bashir. After months of protest and attempts by security forces to quell the protests, al-Bashir’s government finally collapsed.

In the aftermath, a transitional Sovereignty Council comprising both military veterans and civilian revolutionaries took charge of the country. Al-Burhan is set to lead the council until 2021, when a civilian is expected to take his place.

Al-Burhan’s civilian counterpart, Abdalla Hamdok, has been considerably more hesitant to normalize. Hamdok has repeatedly insisted that his government does not have a mandate to negotiate relations with Israel.

The question of normalization, Hamdok said at a press conference in Khartoum in August, required “a deep discussion [in Sudan’s] society.”


‘Jerusalem is our city,’ Turkey’s Erdogan declares

Addressing lawmakers in Ankara, Turkish president says the Palestinian people have lived in the capital ‘for thousands of years’

 

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inspects a military honor guard at the parliament, in Ankara, Turkey, October 1, 2020 (Turkish Presidency via AP. Pool)

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inspects a military honor guard at the parliament, in Ankara, Turkey, October 1, 2020 (Turkish Presidency via AP. Pool)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday implied that Jerusalem belongs to Turkey, referring to the Ottoman Empire’s control over the city for much of the modern era.

“In this city that we had to leave in tears during the First World War, it is still possible to come across traces of the Ottoman resistance. So Jerusalem is our city, a city from us,” he told Turkish lawmakers during a major policy speech in Ankara. “Our first qibla [direction of prayer in Islam] al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem are the symbolic mosques of our faith. In addition, this city is home to the holy places of Christianity and Judaism.”

The Ottoman Empire ruled over Jerusalem from 1516 to 1917. Modern Turkey, its successor state, has long stressed its enduring connection to the holy city, regularly condemning Israel’s alleged efforts to “judaize” it and the US administration’s December 2017 recognition of it as Israel’s capital.

Jerusalem has been the capital of Israel since the country’s founding, and the Jewish people have thousands of years of history in the city, backed up by extensive archaeological finds.

During a lengthy speech at the opening of the Turkish parliament’s new legislative session, Erdoğan spent several minutes lamenting the fate of Jerusalem and the Palestinians’ plight.

“Another crisis that our country and our nation carefully follow is the oppression of Israel against the Palestinians and the indifferent practices that disregard the privacy of Jerusalem,” he said toward the end of his address.

“The issue of Jerusalem is not an ordinary geopolitical problem for us. First of all, the current physical appearance of the Old City, which is the heart of Jerusalem, was built by Suleiman the Magnificent, with its walls, bazaar, and many buildings. Our ancestors showed their respect for centuries by keeping this city in high esteem.”

The Palestinian people have been living in Jerusalem “for thousands of years,” but they were occupied and had their rights violated, the Turkish leader went on.

Turkey’s President Erdogan greets legislators at the parliament, in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 1, 2020. (Turkish Presidency via AP. Pool)

He went on to vow to “pay close attention” to the Palestinian issue.

“We consider it an honor on behalf of our country and nation to express the rights of the oppressed Palestinian people on every platform, with whom we have lived for centuries,” he said. “With this understanding, we will follow both the Palestinian cause, which is the bleeding wound of the global conscience, and the Jerusalem case to the end.”

The Israeli Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Erdoğan’s speech.