Iran has a weak navy and it doesn’t have a strong army either. What it does have is proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

An Iranian locally made cruise missile is fired during war games in the northern Indian Ocean and near the entrance to the Gulf, Iran June 17, 2020 (photo credit: WANA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)
An Iranian locally made cruise missile is fired during war games in the northern Indian Ocean and near the entrance to the Gulf, Iran June 17, 2020
(photo credit: WANA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)
Iran is outraged by the US decision to try to impose “snapback” sanctions. It has sought out support from China and so far that appears to be pushing back against the US plan to impose United Nations sanctions. But Iran knows that Washington’s plan will not stop with attempts at snapback. The US recently sought to interdict Iranian gas exports to Venezuela and Washington has other plans in place to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. The usual Tehran response to US threats or actions is to strike at sea or by land.

Iran has a weak navy and it doesn’t have a strong army either. What it does have is proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It also has ballistic and cruise missiles and drones that it has invested heavily in. At sea it has fast boats run by the IRGC and new cruise missiles and other weapons, such as mines. Iran is preparing a list of options, as it has for the last two years, to continue to seek  to show the US that it can strike at America’s assets in the region and US allies. This threat is indicated by Iranian media reports about new missiles and even graphics in Iranian media showing the range of its various missiles and drones.

What do we know so far? Iran is pleased that China appears to be helping to stop the US from pushing snap-back sanctions. The sanctions were an element of the 2015 Iran Deal. Iran’s Press TV on August 21 celebrated Beijing’s support. Iran is seeking a long term economic deal with Beijing at the same time while the Trump administration has had public feuds with China in the last year over Covid-19 and also a trade war. Recently CNN reported a Chinese submarines using an underground facility as part of China’s increased military activity and naval power. Iran is pleased that it may have found an ally that will eventually stand up to Washington. In the meantime though Iran will look to its wheelhouse for how to respond.

The Iranian playbook comes down to two choices. The first choice is for Email Ghaani, the man who replaced IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, to encourage attacks on the US and allies by proxies. Ghaani has been to Iraq recently and to Syria. But he is not well loved in Iraq. He does not know the ground and is not respected by the militias. Coordination with Hezbollah and the Houthis may be slightly less than before. Nevertheless Iraqi-based pro-Iranian militias have been firing rockets at the US embassy, US forces near Baghdad airport and US forces at Camp Taji almost daily. Iraq’s Prime Minister was in Washington this week so the rockets were designed to show him who is boss of Iraq. Iran is boss, that was the message.

Iran can order more rocket attacks and attacks on US supply convoys. It has done around 30 rocket attacks in the last six months and around six attacks on supply convoys. It could use the Houthis to conduct more attacks on Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia is well prepared for this. Iran also knows that US Central Command will retaliate if there are US casualties in Iraq. The US already carried out airstrikes in December and March against Iranian-backed groups. This is the calculation Iran must look at. Iran might also look to harass the US in the Euphrates valley or Tanf base near Jordan, but it knows it will be met with retaliation if it does so too openly. Iran is lucky that in Lebanon the UN tribunal that ruled on a 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri did not go after the Assad regime or Hezbollah’s leadership. This saves it from having do more in Lebanon to confront the US. Hezbollah has said it reserves a right to strike at Israel for a July attack Hezbollah blames on Israel in Syria. SO far
Hezbollah has been holding its cards close to its chest after a Beirut explosion caused questions about the possibility of Hezbollah’s connection t storing ammonium nitrate at Beirut port. Best for Iran to remain low key in Lebanon.

Tehran could act at sea. This is where it has become more proficient in the last two years. Iran is angered by a recent UAE-Israel deal to normalize relations. Parliament speaker Mohamed Baqher Qalibaf and others want tough reactions to the UAE. Others want to warn the US and UAE.

What might the Iranian game-plan at sea look like. Iran knows the US has drones and F-35s in Al-Dhafra base in the UAE. Iran also follows closely the comings and goings off Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, the UAE ports on the Gulf of Oman. Iran has struck here before. On May 12 Iranian frogmen allegedly damaged four commercial ships off Fujairah. Two were Saudi ships and one an Norwegian and the fourth a UAE ship. Then Iran struck again a month latter, mining two ships that were off the coast of Iran. The Kokuka Courageous, a Japanese owned ship was struck while Japan’s Prime Minister was in Iran in June. The Norwegian-owned Front Altair was also damaged. The US showed video that illustrated Iran’s involvement.

Then Iran downed a US Global Hawk drone on June 20 and said it could have targeted a manned US P-8 plane. The White House ordered retaliatory strikes by backed down. A month later Iran seized the Stena Impero, a British ship, in response to the UK Royal Marines taking the Grace, a ship with Iranian oil being sent to Syria. The Grace was renamed the Adrian Darya and released and in September the Stena Impero was also released by Tehran. Iran didn’t stop there though, it had already planned and carried out drone and cruise missiles strikes on Iraq’s Abqaiq facility. Iran had also ordered attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraq in May 2019 and also from the Houthis against a facility near the UAE. That attack, on Shaybah oil and gas field was largely unnoticed at the time in August 2018. It was dry run for Abqaiq.

Then Iran shifted to attacks on US forces in Iraq. But it didn’t forget the naval war with the US and US allies. The US had seized two ships laden with Iranian weapons that were heading to Yemen. These were one of at least three, maybe four, that were seized from December 2019 to May 2020. In April 2020 Iranian IRGC fast boats harassed US ships in the Persian Gulf. The US threatened to sink Iranian ships in retaliation. In July 2020 Iran towed a scale model of US aircraft carrier out to sea and used it for target practice. This is the third time Iran used the same mock carrier but it was a message to the US. The same month Iran apparently hijacked a ship called the Gulf Sky and took it from off the coast of the UAE to near Bandar Abbas.

In August Iran used helicopters to board the mv WILA, a tanker off the coast of Iran. I did this after the US stopped four tankers on the way to Venezuela full of Iranian gas and took the gas based on a US court order. On August 20 Iran boarded a UAE ship as well. The pattern is clear. Iran uses helicopters and fast boats and mines to harass ships. It knows when and where to strike. It knows all the ships that pass near the UAE. It monitors US drones and aircraft that leave US bases and it monitors the US navy. It harasses US ships. It has shown off new Khordad air defenses and cruise missiles along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Iran knows that it can strike at a time of its choosing. When it chooses to do so against the US attempt to put in place snap back sanctions it will have a large canvass on which to operate. It must only wonder if the US will act to deter it the way the US has in Iraq. It knows that US allies, such as Saudi Arabia, have not acted to deter it in the past after the strike on Abqaiq.


12 rockets fired at Israel from Gaza since Thursday night, damage caused to Sderot home, as violence escalates along restive border region

 

Smoke rises in the distance after war planes belonging to the Israeli army carried out airstrikes over Khan Yunis, in the Southern Gaza Strip early morning on August 21, 2020. (SAID KHATIB / AFP)

Smoke rises in the distance after war planes belonging to the Israeli army carried out airstrikes over Khan Yunis, in the Southern Gaza Strip early morning on August 21, 2020. (SAID KHATIB / AFP)

Israeli warplanes carried out a third round of airstrikes in Gaza early Friday morning in response to a rocket barrage several hours earlier, capping off a night that saw multiple rounds of missile launches and reprisal raids as simmering tensions threatened to break into the open.

The Israel Defense Forces said that at around 6 a.m., fighter jets and other aircraft carried out strikes on “underground infrastructure belonging to the Hamas terror group,” in response to the attack earlier in the evening in which seven rockets were fired at southern Israel from the Strip.

According to the IDF, six of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. A home in the southern Israeli town of Sderot sustained considerable damage in the attack.

“We hold Hamas responsible for all terror activity emanating from Gaza,” the military added.

The raid was the third of the night, after two earlier sorties targeted a cement facility used to provide materials for tunnels used by Gazan terror groups and a site where rockets are produced.

The Shehab news outlet, which is linked to the Hamas terror group which rules the enclave, reported that at least one person was injured during the strikes east of Khan Younis, in southern Gaza. The Gaza health ministry did not report any injuries.

The Iron Dome anti-missile system fires interception missiles seen in the sky in the early morning of August 21, 2020. (MAHMUD HAMS / AFP)

The volley of seven rockets was fired at 2:30 a.m., joining five projectiles that were shot at Israel late Thursday night, two of which failed to reach Israeli territory and three of which were shot down by the Iron Dome system, according to the military.

The 12 rockets mark a major escalation of violence, even as tensions have ramped up over the past several weeks with sporadic rocket fire and hundreds of balloons carrying incendiary devices being launched toward Israel, drawing near daily Israeli reprisal fire.

Pictures and videos shared on social media of the home that was struck in Sderot showed a kitchen blown apart, windows smashed and large holes in walls and the roof.

“We didn’t hear the siren and suddenly there was a loud blast,” Shlomo Malka, the owner of the house, told Ynet news. “We got out of bed and ran to the bomb shelter. When we came out we saw everything was destroyed. The whole kitchen is in shambles, the food for Shabbat is ruined.”

Reports indicated that the damage was likely caused by shrapnel from an interception.

Other videos and pictures showed several Iron Dome interceptor missiles being launched over the city and light damage to the outside of a home.

The Magen David Adom rescue service said three people were treated for anxiety attacks and another woman suffered light injuries sustained while running to a bomb shelter.

Smoke and flames rise in the distance after war planes belonging to the Israeli army carried out airstrikes over Khan Yunis, Gaza Strip, on August 20, 2020. (SAID KHATIB / AFP)

The night of fighting capped a day in which at least 42 fires were sparked by balloon-borne incendiary devices lofted from Gaza, according to the Fire and Rescue Service. A statement from the fire service said most of the blazes were small and didn’t pose any danger to people or property.

An incendiary balloon is released by Palestinians into Israel near al-Bureij refugee camp along the Israel-Gaza border, on August 12, 2020. (MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)

Over the past few weeks, terrorists in the enclave have again begun launching balloon-borne incendiary and explosive devices into southern Israel, sparking dozens of fires that caused environmental and property damage in the region.

Those attacks have drawn daily retaliatory Israeli strikes against Hamas installations.

The apparent uptick in fighting late Thursday and early Friday comes amid truce efforts being brokered by Egypt.

A ceasefire in place for years, which has already been renewed several times, is bolstered by millions of dollars in financial aid from Qatar to Gaza. But complaints from Hamas that Israel has failed to live up to its side of the bargain have been accompanied by sporadic flare-ups on the border.

The truce provided for permits for Gazans to work in Israel and financing for Gaza development projects, both measures that would provide some economic relief in an impoverished territory where unemployment exceeds 50 percent.

Sources told AFP the twin issues were at the root of the latest flare-up.

A source close to Hamas said the Israeli government told the Egyptian delegation it expected a “return to calm” before considering implementation of truce provisions such as “the extension of the eastern Gaza industrial zone” and the construction of a new power line to the territory.

Illustrative: Israeli soldiers extinguish a fire near Kibbutz Kissufim caused by an incendiary balloon launched from the Gaza Strip, on August 19, 2020. (Menahem Kahana/AFP)

On Tuesday, Gaza officials announced that the Strip’s sole power station had run out of fuel and would stop operating. Israel cut off fuel transfers via the Kerem Shalom crossing a week ago as a punitive measure following the rocket and balloon attacks.

Also on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would respond to airborne arson attacks in the same manner it does rocket attacks, and warned that there could be another major flareup in Gaza.

“I regret that we are also preparing, to the extent necessary, for the possibility of a round or rounds [of fighting]. I hope that we will not get there,” he told local leaders of Gaza-area communities.

AFP contributed to this report.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hits-gaza-for-third-time-after-major-uptick-in-rocket-fire-overnight/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


The researchers have been able to pin down the moment of the destruction to 586 BCE, when the Babylonians conquered Jerusalem and devastated its temple.

Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (photo credit: ROSSELLA TERCATIN)
Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem.
(photo credit: ROSSELLA TERCATIN)
What would happen if archaeologists could excavate tears? Looking at burned stones and beams clearly visible in the ruins of a building recently exposed at the excavation known as the “Givati Parking Lot” while touring the site, I could not help asking myself the question.

Those blackened remains have been there for more than 2,600 years. The researchers have been able to pin down the moment of their destruction to 586 BCE, when the Babylonians conquered Jerusalem and devastated its temple, which stood just a few minutes away from the prominent two-story building.

How many tears were shed, how many cries could be heard during that blaze which likely added torridness to the already proverbially hot Jerusalem summer days?

The structure offering such a vivid testimony of one of the greatest catastrophes ever befallen on the Jewish people, which also marked the beginning of their first exile, is located just outside the walls of the Old City of Jerusalem on the western slope of the Tyropoeon Valley.

Excavated for more than a decade, the Givati dig is considered part of the National Park of the City of David, located just across the street, and it offers traces of many of the most iconic periods of Jerusalem’s history.

The current expedition, headed by Prof. Yuval Gadot of Tel Aviv University and Dr. Yiftah Shalev of the Israel Antiquities Authority, has focused on researching times that have been less documented in the intense archaeological activity that is carried out in the numerous sites around the city, and specifically, the Iron Age, the Persian and the Hellenistic eras.

The cooperation between the two institutions has been especially fruitful in advancing the project, also in consideration of its sensitive location, the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan, many residents of which oppose the excavation as well as the whole City of David site.

Burned beam visible in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)Burned beam visible in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)

Usually, summers are a particularly busy period for archaeology: Academic digs open all over Israel and thousands of students, volunteers and temporary workers join them, as well as the more permanent projects where archaeologists work year-round.

Because of the coronavirus crisis though, in 2020 most of this activity is not happening.

However, at Givati, the expedition managed to organize a few weeks of digging to complete excavating the destroyed building, as Gadot explained on a bright August morning.

“One of the features that makes this area special is that we can really look at it as a ‘tel,’” he said, referring to a mound formed from the remains of several periods accumulating on top of each other. “We can identify the layers dating back to as early as the ninth century BCE in the Iron Age to the 10th century CE and the Abbasid period, which in Jerusalem is extremely unique.”

The scholar also highlighted that the excavation at Givati represents the largest exposure of archaeological remains of the western slope of the valley, after for decades researchers focused on the eastern one.

Looking at the excavation from above, an inexperienced eye will only spot a maze of walls erected in typical golden white Jerusalem stones of different sizes.

Blackened stone visible in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)Blackened stone visible in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)

However, those spaces once marked the rooms, cellars and courtyards of houses, public facilities and fortifications and for the researchers, they represent three-dimensional pages narrating excerpts of the history of Jerusalem.

Routinely, the ruins also give back inestimable treasures: a trove of golden coins, rare seals and seals impressions, pottery and other objects bearing witness to the daily life of ancient Jerusalemites.

“The expedition before us exposed a market from the Abbasid period; below it they found a Byzantine mansion and under it a late Roman villa, almost complete, with a courtyard and several rooms,” Gadot said. “They also unearthed another villa and several Jewish ritual baths from the early Roman period as well as fortifications which date back to either the Hasmonean period or the Seleucid one.”

One element that seems to have remained consistent through the ages is that by virtue of its exclusive location, just a few minutes from the Temple Mount, the area was devoted to either private houses for prominent families or public buildings.

This is the case of the building burned down by the Babylonians, which has offered the archaeologists also unprecedented insights on the next chapter of the story, the one that followed the destruction, as Shalev explained to The Jerusalem Post.

“We were intrigued to discover that later on, during the fifth century BCE, people came back to Jerusalem and established themselves in the ruins, cleared out part of the structure and settled inside it, which we take as an indication of the poor state in which both them and the city found themselves at the time,” he explained. Artifacts uncovered from this period include coins and pottery vessels as well as modest quality construction materials.

Were those people Jews returning to their promised land after the exile and driven to settle where their ancestors had lived and thrived? Or perhaps members of the small group of Jews allowed to remain? At this juncture, it is impossible to say with certainty.

“What we can say for sure is that this period of poverty did not last long because we also found traces of another large public structure dated to the late third/early second century BCE, so we know that by this point Jerusalem, its status and its economy were rising again,” Shalev said.

“There is still much we don’t know, but the long black hole we had before that stretched from the early sixth century to the late second century is at least narrowed down,” he added.

Tel Aviv University Prof. Yuval Gadot in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)Tel Aviv University Prof. Yuval Gadot in the remains of the building destroyed by the Babilonyans in 586 BCE at the Givati Parking Lot Excavation at the City of David, Jerusalem. (Credit: Rossella Tercatin)

Uncovering new evidence to bridge this gap is one of the goals of the TAU-IAA project, for this year and for the future.

The Hellenistic building unearthed is the first one found in Jerusalem. Partially exposed in the previous excavations, the expedition led by Gadot and Shalev has uncovered several new parts of it, including a large room presenting pottery vessels on the floor, within the floor and under the floor, which allowed researchers to reach very precise dating. Many artifacts, including a gold ring and numerous seals, were also found in the construction.

As meaningful as the findings exposed so far have been to understand more about the history of Jerusalem, the researchers highlighted that there is still a lot to do in the area.

“We know there is another structure to the north of the one we have already dug, for example, and we still have plenty of questions,” Shalev concluded. “We will hopefully address some of them in the future, and some we will leave for the generation after us, as it is always important to do in archaeological excavations.”

https://www.jpost.com/archaeology/the-ashes-of-jerusalems-biblical-fall-still-show-at-dig-near-old-city-639230