All IDF officers are careful to state that the military never promised regime change, and at most the opportunity to improve conditions for such a change.
A billboard with Iranian centrifuges illustrations and portraits of nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strikes is displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran August 29, 2025(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS) ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAs a series of complex post-Iran war dilemmas are set into place, the IDF has shifted to focus almost all of its Iran-related attention to the nuclear issue, with the ballistic missiles and regime change questions mostly falling by the wayside.
In briefings, the IDF is spending significant time emphasizing the continued danger of the 60% enriched uranium which the Islamic regime might access under the rubble of its Isfahan and other facilities.
Discussing that issue, the IDF is making it clear that it would be ready to return to a full-fledged war to prevent Iran from using the uranium to move toward a nuclear weapon.
Yet in the same briefings, the ballistic missile threat which Iran wields, has used with lethal effect against the Jewish state four times since 2024, and for which ostensibly Israel went to war with Iran on February 28, is getting much less attention.
It is unclear if the downplaying of the threat relates to the messaging of the US, the greater relative danger posed by a nuclear weapon, the success of the current war in setting the threat back multiple years, or the post war fog surrounding how many missiles remain and how quickly Iran might rebuild the threat.
A large plume of smoke rises over Tehran after explosions were reported in the city during the night on March 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (credit: GETTY IMAGES)
IDF never promised regime change
Of course, the IDF is still carefully following the ballistic missile threat.
However, the impression given in briefings is that the nuclear issue – which many had said was set back by years after the June 2025 operation – is far and above the focus for analyzing post-war moves.
Likewise, regime change has mostly disappeared from IDF briefings.
All IDF officers are careful to state that the military never promised regime change, and at most the opportunity to improve conditions for such a change.
On Friday, the IDF went so far as to admit that some of the attacks on low level Basij militias and checkpoints in Iran, may have been a waste of resources, since they did not change the situation on the ground.
Defending the attacks on the Basij and checkpoints in Iran, the IDF did not so much emphasize positive impact from these attacks as it noted that even during such attacks, it continued to strike other aspects of military threats which Iran presented to Israel.
Putting together the mosaic of targets in Iran the IDF said was like playing a complex symphony.
In terms of achievements in Iran, the IDF said that part of the success came from January 16, 2024 and March 7, 2024 decisions within the IDF to establish the now humongous Iran-focused air force unit.
Mockups of domestically-made Iranian missiles are displayed at an exhibition outside the Defence Museum in Tehran on March 31, 2026. (credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
According to the IDF, this sub-unit within the air force has effectively become the military “Iran Command.”
Discussing other moves which the air force may make in the future, the air force said that it may establish a set full-time division devoted to the IDF Central Command for fighting Palestinian terror in the West Bank.
Since summer 2023, the IDF started to use the air force continuously more aggressively against West Bank Palestinian terror – something it had not done for years since the end of the Second Intifada in 2005.
On Thursday, the IDF Central Command announced that it was establishing a larger and more systematic targeting center for aerial and other heavy firepower, similar to what exists for the IDF Northern and Southern Commands.
“Lebanon stands at a crossroads,” the diplomatic mission said, calling for a meeting between the two countries’ leaders.
May. 1, 2026
JNS Staff U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (third from right) attends working-level peace talks with Israel and Lebanon at the White House, April 23, 2026. Credit: Freddie Everett/U.S. State Department.
( May 1, 2026 / JNS )
The U.S. embassy in Beirut on Thursday called for direct engagement between Lebanon and Israel, saying the Land of the Cedars faces a “historic opportunity” to reclaim its sovereignty and shape its future.
“Lebanon stands at a crossroads. Its people have a historic opportunity to reclaim their country and shape their future as a truly sovereign, independent nation,” the embassy said in a statement posted on social media.
Direct talks between the neighboring states “can mark the beginning of a national revival,” the embassy said, adding that the current cessation of hostilities has created an opening for diplomacy.
The truce, the statement noted, was achieved at the request of President Donald Trump, giving Lebanon the opportunity to present its demands with the backing of the United States. It called for a meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“A direct meeting between President Aoun and Prime Minister Netanyahu, facilitated by President Trump, would give Lebanon the chance to secure concrete guarantees on full sovereignty, territorial integrity, secure borders, humanitarian and reconstruction support, and the complete restoration of Lebanese state authority over every inch of its territory—guaranteed by the United States,” the embassy said.
Despite recent talks between the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington, Lebanon and Israel remain formally at war. And despite periodic ceasefires, tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border have remained high, with ongoing Hezbollah activity and Israeli military responses.
“This is Lebanon’s moment to decide its own destiny, one which belongs to all its people,” the embassy said. “The United States is ready to stand with Lebanon as it seizes this opportunity with confidence and wisdom. The time for hesitation is over.”
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that Iran’s enriched uranium is likely still being held at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear complex.
A satellite imagery taken on February 1, 2026, shows a new roof over a previously destroyed building at Isfahan nuclear site, Iran.(photo credit: Planet Labs PBC/Handout via REUTERS) ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFThe majority of Iran’s enriched uranium is likely at the Isfahan nuclear complex, which was struck both in the 12-day war in June and during Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi told the Associated Press in an interview on Tuesday.
According to Grossi, the IAEA continues to get information through satellite images of the effects of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.
On June 9, 2025, just before the war started, images from an Airbus satellite showed a truck with 18 blue containers entering the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. The containers are believed to contain highly enriched uranium and have likely not been moved, AP stated.
Grossi emphasized that the current IAEA statements on Iran’s nuclear materials and the state of the nuclear sites can only be an estimate, as although Iran is required to open its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspection as a part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the organization has not been able to visit the site.
“We haven’t been able to inspect or to reject that the material is there and that the seals, the IAEA seals, remain there. I hope that we’ll be able to do that, so what I tell you is our best estimate,” Grossi told AP.
An IDF infographic on the Isfahan nuclear facility in Iran, released June 13, 2025 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
In a UN press conference on Wednesday, Grossi said that an IAEA inspection was scheduled for a new uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan that Iran declared last June, but the strikes began on the date scheduled.
Russia offers to help with extraction of uranium
Grossi told AP that the IAEA has discussed the possibility of moving Iran’s enriched uranium out of the country with multiple parties, including Russia.
US President Donald Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to help the US handle the enriched uranium, but that Trump had responded that Putin should be more “involved with ending the war with Ukraine.”
The IAEA has also been in discussions with the US and informally with Iran, AP stated, citing Grossi. However, the IAEA has not been part of the ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, despite participating in the nuclear talks in February.
