“The Iranians have paid a very high price for operating all their proxies against Israel over the past year,” explained Sabati.

Iran finds itself significantly weakened

“Their command has been eliminated, their soldiers and field commanders – many of whom are in Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups,” Sabati noted. As a result, “Iran is entering the campaign in Syria in a very weak state; it has no means to help Assad’s regime at all.”

This double blow is not only about the inability to provide assistance but also about inflicting harm.

“They targeted a general and several IRGC members, killed them, and captured the Iranian consulate. On one hand, Iran is unable to assist; on the other, it has become a target itself.”

Struggling with parallel fronts

According to Sabati, Iran’s problem is compounded by its inability to manage simultaneous fronts.

“The Iranians have an issue. They neither like nor believe in fighting on two fronts. When they’re focused on the Israeli front, that’s all they deal with,” Sabati said.

“They likely had to neglect this front of the extremist Sunnis,” Sabati added. “They’ve abandoned it for the past two or three years in favor of focusing on Israel.”

The consequences of this neglect are now becoming evident, the researcher argued.

“Now the genie is out of the bottle.”

Turning to Russia for help

In search of a solution, Iran turned to Russia, he continued. “Iran’s foreign minister spoke last night with Russia’s foreign minister, asking for help.”

However, even the Iranian foreign minister’s visit to Damascus seemed futile, Sabati added.

“He can come to encourage – that’s all he can do. They don’t have much in their pocket.”

Domestic criticism and regional implications

The situation is escalating amid internal criticism in Iran, as “the public is very angry about the aid provided to regional countries and all the terrorist organizations,” said Sabati.

Meanwhile, the regional implications largely depend on Russia’s response.

“If the Russians intervene and suppress this rebellion, it’s a different story. If they don’t, we will witness a significant weakening of both Iran and the Syrian regime.”

Such weapons may include missiles, production and storage facilities of chemical weapons like sarin, tanks, armored personnel carriers, and aircraft at bases in the Aleppo area and its surroundings.

In addition to stockpiles of light weapons, shoulder-fired missiles, vehicles, and various types of ammunition, the area contains infrastructure sites for the production of weapons such as rockets, precision missiles, and other armaments, some of which are manufactured for Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shiite militias.

These production sites are designed to complicate IDF operations targeting the smuggling of weapons from Iran to Syria and from there to Beirut.

The rebels are mostly from organizations rooted in al-Qaeda.

In the short term, they are focused on opposing the Assad regime. However, the defense establishment fears that once they consolidate control over the area, they may turn their intentions and firepower toward the Israeli home front.

The weapons that might fall into their hands, combined with their extremist ideology, could threaten Israel’s security interests, necessitating constant vigilance.

Iran’s involvement

Another highly dangerous development for Israel is Iran’s involvement, which is currently striving to suppress the rebellion led by the rebels against the Assad regime.

Further, Iranian success in the Syrian arena could bolster its influence over the Syrian regime.

Recently, however, there have been growing calls among moderate Sunni states urging Assad to break away from the “Axis of Evil,” rejoin the Arab League, and benefit from investments that could help rehabilitate his regime and Syria.