According to the Northern Command, most of the terrorist infrastructure near the Lebanon-Israel border has been destroyed, and most of the weapons have been transferred to Israel or destroyed in the field.
Despite this, the IDF also said there are Lebanese villages where the work has not been completed.
This is a developing story.
By Yaakov Lappin, JNS
Israel’s airstrikes on military targets in Iran overnight Friday damaged the Islamic Regime’s missile program and air defenses, while demonstrating the Israeli Air Force’s advanced long-range capabilities.
However, Iran’s nuclear program was left unscathed, suggesting that Israel’s government factored in U.S. pressure to keep the attack limited in nature.
The question going forward is whether the damage to Iran’s missile and air defense infrastructure have paved the way for future strikes.
Iranian state media has reported that targets were hit in three main regions: Tehran, Khuzestan (in southwest Iran) and Ilam (western Iran).
The attack, which Israel named “Operation Days of Repentance,” saw tens of IAF jets, accompanied by refuelers, travel some 1,600 kilometers from Israeli territory. The IAF achieved near uncontested aerial supremacy in Iranian skies.
While Iranian state media is playing down the impact, the attack at the very least demonstrated Israel’s ability to strike deep in Iranian territory and conduct complex, multi-wave operations without sustaining losses.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Hezi Halevi commanded the operation from IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, alongside IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.
According to the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, the mission was successful, with all aircraft returning safely.
Following the strikes, Reuters cited a senior Biden administration official as saying that while Washington “was prepared to respond to any Iranian retaliation, President Joe Biden anticipated that Iran would not escalate the situation.”
This aligns with a broader pattern of U.S. pressure on Israel to avoid direct attacks against Iran’s nuclear program, especially with U.S. elections just days away and amid ongoing diplomatic efforts by the U.S. aimed to avoid direct American involvement in a war against Iran.
As such, the attack was not only a military maneuver by Israel, but also a diplomatic one. By avoiding a direct confrontation over the nuclear issue, the Iranian regime was given the opportunity to de-escalate.
The immediate tactical question following the operation is whether Israel’s strikes have sufficiently degraded Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities to influence future engagements.
If Iran’s air defense network was significantly weakened, Israel may have an advantage in any potential follow-up operation.
The fact that the operation spanned several hours, with multiple waves of attacks, suggests a sustained and methodical effort to diminish Iran’s military response capabilities.
The damage to Iran’s missile production sites is currently unknown, but might also slow down Tehran’s efforts to replenish and upgrade its ballistic missile arsenal, degrading a key component of Iran’s military strategy.
The key strategic question now is whether Israel anticipates a “Stage B.” While the recent strikes achieved tactical gains, Israel’s decision not to engage Iran’s nuclear facilities suggests that a future attack might hinge on Iran’s response or any perceived shift by Iran to break out to a nuclear bomb.
If the recent strike has indeed undermined Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, Israel might find a second wave—targeting more sensitive or strategically crucial sites—logistically simpler.
Yet Iran’s nuclear advancements continue. According to Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, within two to three weeks, Iran can enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices.
The parallel effort of creating a nuclear warhead, she told JNS this month, would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead.
“We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
In light of these developments, the focus on missile production and air defenses suggests Israel is playing a longer game, seeking to degrade Iran’s immediate military threat while leaving room for future strikes.
“Operation Days of Repentance” thus stands as a calculated maneuver, but one that leaves open critical questions about what comes next, and whether Israel has set the stage for a more decisive confrontation with Iran’s nuclear program.
Since Israel began ground operations in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah terrorists have reportedly begun to abandon their posts and flee to Syria.
After over a year of launching aerial attacks against northern Israel, Hezbollah has reportedly begun to crack as the Iran-backed terror group has experienced a wave of desertions, sources told the Arabic independent online newspaper Elaph in a report published Sunday.
Hezbollah’s membership was reportedly shaken after pager explosions saw 1000s of its members wounded, its leadership eliminated in Israeli airstrikes, including Hezbollah head Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and now an Israeli ground operation into southern Lebanon.
Those defecting, according to the source, are not reporting when summoned by senior terrorists and not waiting in their assigned locations. Other terrorists have reportedly fled to Syrian territory with their families, attempting to avoid any confrontation with Israel at close range.
Trying to survive its members’s abandonment, sources told Elaph that the terror group has begun sending reinforcements to southern Lebanon to confront Israeli soldiers.
An underground Hezbollah complex raided by IDF soldiers, October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
As a result of combatants abandoning their posts, Hezbollah is now reportedly struggling to communicate with its men on the ground. There are also fears that the defections, now mainly a phenomenon in southern Lebanon, will spread to terrorists throughout the country, the source claimed.
The confrontations on the southern border and escape by Hezbollah combatants have reportedly left the group struggling to recruit new terrorists to fuel its fight against Israel.
AN ISRAELI soldier drives through southern Lebanon this week. This conflict should be named ‘The Second Hezbollah War,’ or more accurately, ‘The First Iranian War,’ the writer maintains. (credit: Artorn Pookasook/Reuters)
Hezbollah began firing on Israel only a day after Hamas’s October 7 massacre in southern Israel – forming part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance.’ In addition to some soldiers, the rocket fire has killed a number of civilians, including 12 Druze children in Majdal Shams, and forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes.
The constant fire and increasing civilian toll eventually pushed the war cabinet to expand the goals of the Israel-Hamas War to include the safe return of Israel’s northern residents.
The ground operations, which were not without controversy from Israel’s Western allies and the United Nations, have seen numerous Hezbollah structures destroyed – including tunnels that would have enabled the terror group to reenact their own October 7 attacks in the North.
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