Relatively quiet until now compared to other terror militias backed by the Islamic Republic, Shia-allied Iraqi groups are increasingly firing on the Jewish state with mixed success
As the specter of a regional war in the Middle East grows a year after Hamas’s October 7 massacre, with Iran this week firing ballistic missiles at Israel and the IDF sending ground forces to fight Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, one front has remained relatively quiet. However, that reality may be rapidly changing.
Iran-backed Iraqi militias have vowed since October 7 to support Hamas’s war effort. Lately, these groups have stepped up their attacks.
They launched two drones at the southern Israeli city of Eilat on September 25. Defense systems intercepted one, while the other penetrated Israeli defenses and impacted the port, causing material damage and lightly injuring two people.
The same groups had launched six explosive-laden drones and cruise missiles toward northern Israel earlier last week. And on Sunday morning, alert sirens were activated in Eilat and a drone launched from Iraq was thwarted once more.
Through the early months of the Israel-Hamas war, Iraqi militias made exaggerated claims of successful attacks on “vital” Israeli targets when, in reality, some of the launches never reached Israel at all. But the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq has now claimed responsibility for nearly 170 attacks on Israeli targets this past year, with more than 70 percent happening in September 2024 alone, coinciding with the ongoing escalation between Israel and Hezbollah.
But it is worth looking back at some key events in Iraq’s tumultuous history — as a feared pariah state that underwent a US occupation, the rise of ISIS, and an expansionist Iran’s growing interest — to understand what may come next.
Iran-Iraq War and American intervention
The Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s marks a pivotal moment in bilateral relations. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution toppled the government of the US-backed Shah and replaced it with an Islamic Republic led by Ayatollah Khomeini. Then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein saw the upheaval as a direct threat to his regime’s survival if the revolution was exported across Iran’s borders. Fueled by a desire to assert his dominance and reshape the Gulf, Hussein launched a surprise invasion of Iran in September 1980.
The US decided at first to remain neutral, but as the conflict escalated, it gradually shifted towards Iraq, providing little hope of toppling the newly established anti-American regime in Tehran. The war ended with no winners after a UN-brokered ceasefire was implemented, but it solidified ideological rivalries between Sunni and Shia groups in Iraq and established the budding mullah regime in Tehran as a force to be reckoned with.
The Bush administration launched the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 after Saddam fell out of US favor following his thwarted attempt to annex Kuwait in 1990. American forces entered on the belief that he possessed weapons of mass destruction and posed a threat to global security. The “shock and awe” campaign that followed utilized overwhelming force to topple the Iraqi regime. After the 2003 invasion, the country’s power balance shifted dramatically.
The overthrow of Saddam, a Sunni Muslim, led to the empowerment of the Shia majority in the country as the US set out to build a democratic government led by what it saw as moderate Shia factions. Iran, a Shia-majority theocracy, seized the opportunity to expand its influence. Iran began arming its militias to counter US power, capitalizing on local distrust of the foreign force, coaxing them into aligning with the seat of Shia authority in the region. Since then, these proxies have regularly carried out attacks against US forces and their allies operating in the country.
“Those militias attacking Israel have already attacked Jordan and killed three US soldiers. Since October, most of their attacks have focused on Iraqi Kurdistan and US forces in the region,” said former Iraqi deputy military attaché to Washington and former spokesperson for the deputy prime minister of Iraq, Entifadh Qanbar.
Iranian material support to Iraq’s militias saw another major boom in 2014 during the rise of the now-infamous Sunni Islamist terror organization ISIS. Iran portrayed its assistance as a means to combat a common enemy but also used the chaos in the fight against ISIS to solidify its role within Iraq going forward, raising concerns about the long-term implications of its involvement for Iraqi sovereignty and long-term regional stability.
The proxies
Now, Iraq stands at a crossroads between Washington and Tehran. The US has long been negotiating the drawdown date for the 2,500 American troops present in the country, and although talks have faced delay after delay, recent discussions put the deadline around the end of 2025.
On the other hand, Iran is preparing for the eventuality of American disengagement from the broader Middle East region, but more specifically from its neighbor Iraq, where it has long desired to expand its influence. Moreover, that aspiration has been evident over the years as Iran exerts its influence through ideologically aligned Shia militia groups throughout the country or, in other words, its proxies.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) is an umbrella term for the various Iran-backed Shia militias and makes up part of Iran’s wider Axis of Resistance alliance against Israel. “Axis of Resistance” refers to state and non-state allies of Iran committed to the destruction of Israel, while the term “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” only emerged in 2023, representing Iran-backed Shia militias specifically operating in support of Hamas during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
It was formally used after the start of this conflict to unify Iran’s proxies in Iraq under one banner in their military efforts against Israel. The first time the name appeared officially was on October 18, after Shia militia group Tashkil al-Waritheen claimed an attack on a US military base in northern Iraq. Soon after the attack, Tashkil al-Waritheen rolled back their claim in deference to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq brand instead.
While the IRI is an umbrella term for groups aligned in their battle against Israel and the US, there exists a network within it called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF was officially formed in 2014 when Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shia cleric, called for a national mobilization to combat ISIS. It is made up of a broad range of militia groups, including both pro-Iran Shia militias and Iraqi nationalist groups. Although many of the powerful militias within the PMF are Iran-aligned, not all are.
The PMF is officially part of Iraq’s security apparatus and operates under the jurisdiction of the Iraqi government while maintaining independent command structures. However, while some factions are loyal to the government in Baghdad and operate independently of Iranian influence, many factions move to advance political agendas aligned with Iran.
“The Iraqi government is helpless. Prime Minister Muhammed Shia’ Al Sudani, whom the United States tries to support, can’t balance his relationships between the Americans and Iran. He is too weak to go after the Iran-backed groups because, after all, he came to power from the backing and push of Iran-backed militia after they helped dismiss anti-Iranian Shia leader Muqtada Sadr through the Iraqi Federal Court, which has become a complete proxy of Iran,” Entifadh told The Times of Israel.
“Another problem that makes these militias more dangerous is that they are funded by the Iraqi government overtly,” he added.
Of those factions, Kata’ib Hezbollah represents one of the most powerful, well-organized, and well-armed Iran-backed militias. It was established in 2007 during the US occupation of Iraq and designated as a terrorist organization by the US in 2009. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a prominent Iraqi military commander with close ties to Iran’s Quds Force, founded the organization. Al-Muhandis played a significant role in aligning the group with Iran’s objectives in the region, particularly in its opposition to US presence in Iraq. He was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020 alongside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.
Besides direct attacks, before the outbreak of war in Israel, Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov was kidnapped by Kata’ib Hezbollah in March 2023. She was abducted by the groups she traveled to Iraq to study and has been held since. Kata’ib Hezbollah also continues to play an active political role in Iraq.
Of the groups that also wield political power inside of Iraq, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) is an Iran-backed militia that split from the Shia Sadrist political movement in 2006. The group is staunchly aligned with Iran, has close ties to the IRGC-Quds Force, and receives military support from Iran. The Badr Organization is also a similar organization with its roots in Iran when it was founded during the Iran-Iraq War and was made up of Iraqi Shia exiles fighting against Hussein. They, too, participate in Iraq’s formal political process and have held key positions in government.
Since the defeat of ISIS, these Iran-backed militias have shifted from military might to political savvy. Many now make up Iraq’s official security apparatus through the PMF, making it difficult to distinguish between state and non-state actors in some areas. They also play a crucial role in Iraq’s parliament, often using their political wings to push policies favoring Iran and opposing US interests in the country.
Kurdish groups
When looking at armed groups in Iraq, it is important not to forget about those groups who have fought alongside Western forces rather than Iran, namely the Kurds. The Kurdistan region in Iraq has long enjoyed a certain degree of autonomy and was a pivotal resource in the American effort in the fight against ISIS. Kurdish forces in Iraq, primarily represented by the Peshmerga, fought shoulder-to-shoulder with US forces against ISIS.
Kurdish relations with Iranian militias during the fight were often complex and pragmatic. At times, they collaborated to achieve common objectives in areas where ISIS posed a significant threat to both sides’ interests. However, underlying tensions persisted due to differing political agendas and regional aspirations. The Kurds have historically sought greater autonomy, while Iranian militias often operate to widen the sphere of Tehran’s power.
When asked about Kurdish worries regarding the influence battle between Iran and the US in Iraq, Iraq-based security analyst and journalist Adel Kanabi said, “The Kurdish parties have long expressed concern about a US withdrawal. They believe that the threat of terrorism is still out there and that ISIS is yet to be fully defeated. On top of the ISIS threat, a potential US withdrawal would clear the field for Iran to further impose its hegemony on Iraq.”
Kurdish factions fear that further escalations in the Middle East around the Israel-Hamas war may bring about the targeting of US forces mainly based in the Kurdistan region. In turn, the KDP could be drawn into a conflict with their compatriots with clashing loyalties.
“It is no secret that these proxy groups do not only control the military side of the country, but the Iraqi government is also sponsored by these pro-Iran figures, and oftentimes, a solution to longstanding issues between Irbil and Baghdad would only be possible with a green light from Baghdad’s guardian in Tehran,” said Kanabi.
A precarious future
The escalation of attacks from Iraq signals a shift in the broader Israel-Hamas war. What began as a conflict between Israel and the Sunni fundamentalist group Hamas has drawn in a wide array of actors, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Iraqi militias aligned with Iran.
For Iraq, a country already reeling from decades of conflict, sectarian violence, and foreign intervention, the deepening entrenchment in the war could further destabilize an already fragile state. For Israel, the attacks underline the multi-front dangers a year after Hamas invaded.
