The IDF’s internal investigation revealed that the department held onto the concept that Hamas was deterred, ignoring signs that this was incorrect.

By Batya Jerenberg, World Israel News

The Military Intelligence Directorate now believes that Hamas planned its invasion of Israel for seven years while it missed the signs that could have prevented the massacre of October 7th, Channel 12 reported Wednesday.

The internal report on the intelligence failure, considered the most massive in Israel’s history, said that it stemmed from the department’s senior echelon holding onto a specific “concept” despite having in hand evidence to the contrary.

They believed that Hamas was deterred from fighting after several rounds in which the terror group suffered heavy losses, and that the terror organization’s leaders wanted quiet so that more Gazans could work in Israel and materially improve their lives.

This led them to ignore years of clues presented to them by intelligence analysts and eyewitness reports from IDF observers on the border of terrorists training in tactics for the takeover of kibbutzim, just as took place on October 7.

A major finding was that the intelligence bosses rejected the theory put forward by certain researchers that Hamas had sat out two clashes with the IDF in Gaza because it was preparing for a much larger conflict and needed to ensure the flow of Qatari money to its coffers to that end.

In the three-day Operation Breaking Dawn in August 2022, the IDF targeted the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, a direct Iranian proxy that is a Hamas rival although it is much smaller.

While Hamas verbally supported its “resistance” its men did not join the fight nor launch rockets at Israel as the PIJ did.

Hamas also sat on the sidelines when the IDF clashed with the PIJ in November 2019.

The terror organization did instigate the 11-day Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021, in which it and the PIJ launched thousands of rockets at Israel and the iDF conducted around 1,500 aerial, land, and sea strikes on the Gaza Strip.

During the investigation, the Channel 12 reporter Nir Devori said, there was “debate on the interpretation of the findings and the insights” to be gained from them, to the point at times of fierce arguments breaking out in security meetings.

Even after outgoing Military Intelligence head Aharon Haliva accepted the findings, Devori noted that the debates are continuing over what changes need to be made in the future.

“Still, even now, the Intelligence Division does not know how to determine with certainty how such incidents can be prevented in the future,” he said.

 


According to a former Shin Bet official, Israel has had opportunities to strike Yahya Sinwar but has aborted that operation over fear of hitting hostages.

 Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' political chief in Gaza, speaks during a rally organised by the representatives of prominent families (mokhtar) in support of "the Palestinian resistence" in Gaza City, on June 20, 2021. (photo credit: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ political chief in Gaza, speaks during a rally organised by the representatives of prominent families (mokhtar) in support of “the Palestinian resistence” in Gaza City, on June 20, 2021.
(photo credit: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
The CIA estimates that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is under pressure from those under his command to agree to a ceasefire deal and end the war with Israel, according to CIA Director Bill Burns, who reported this in a closed committee on Saturday.

Sinwar “is not worried about his death,” but he faced pressure concerning the blame that will be directed at him due to the extent of suffering in Gaza. American intelligence officials added that they believed Sinwar was hiding in underground tunnels in Khan Yunis and that he was the primary decision-maker for Hamas surrounding the decision on a ceasefire and hostage deal.

Hamas’s tactic of hiding in tunnels causes difficulties in transmitting messages to and from him on behalf of Israel, thereby slowing down the pace of talks between the two sides and hindering the progress of the deal.

Following the report, Micha Kobi, a former senior Shin Bet official and Yahya Sinwar’s interrogator when the former was in Israeli prison said in a conversation with Maariv that “no one interferes with Sinwar’s decisions regarding the hostages. Despite his affiliation with Hamas, he operates independently, does not coordinate with any entity, and makes independent decisions.

“He does not listen to Hamas’s political leadership abroad, even though Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal are supposed to be the leaders and top commanders of the organization – in practice, Sinwar decides on the actions simply because he is a strong character. He does what suits him and serves his interests,” Kobi said.

 

 Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns prepares to testify before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence about global threats against the United States in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on March 11, 2024 in Washington, DC. (credit: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES)Enlrage image
Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns prepares to testify before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence about global threats against the United States in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on March 11, 2024 in Washington, DC. (credit: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES)

Regarding the Mossad talks via Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Doha on the issue of the hostages in Gaza, Kobi explained Hamas’s conduct, saying, “The Israeli delegations to Qatar conduct talks in Doha, and Egypt and Qatar convey the content of the talks to Hamas, which then passes them on to Sinwar. All the waiting periods between conversations result from consultations with Sinwar,” he explained.

Communication difficulties between Hamas leaders create hostage deal challenges

Because Sinwar is staying in underground tunnels in Khan Yunis, cut off from communication means, access to him is almost blocked.

“To agree or refuse the deal, Sinwar’s approval is necessary – he is the actual decision-maker. Messengers are sent to the underground tunnels in Khan Yunis to reach him,” Kobi added.

“He receives the main messages through his brother, Mohammed Yahya. However, communication difficulties between Hamas leaders also create challenges in the progress of the hostage deal. Not all commanders have contact with Sinwar, and in general, they cannot communicate freely with each other, knowing that any communication means poses a danger to them and is a method for eavesdropping and surveillance,” he explained.

“In the end, mainly through his brother Mohammed, Sinwar receives information and hears the messages from Doha – and he is the one who decides how matters will progress. When he wants to reorganize and replenish ammunition, he will request a ceasefire according to his interests.”

Beyond the communication difficulties among Hamas commanders, their relationships are also strained.

“In recent months, the terrorist organization has experienced upheaval, and internal relations between Hamas commanders have deteriorated,” the former Shin Bet official continued. “Many commanders have been eliminated, the organization’s strategic assets have been lost, the tunnels have collapsed, and so has the civilian governance.

“All this tension leads to internal conflicts among the organization’s senior officials. Sinwar, for his part, wants to continue inflicting as much damage as possible on Israel, is not interested in negotiations with Israel, wants to remain the leader of the Strip, and aims to achieve a ceasefire to reestablish the terrorist organization in the Strip.

|However, he gets pressured when he hears about a senior commander being eliminated, knowing he could be next – and, of course, he fears that. Despite his fears, his stance does not change. He will fight to the last bullet and do everything possible to cause as many Israeli casualties as possible.”

Kobi also stated that just as the IDF has eliminated other senior Hamas commanders and reached them, they have also come close to Sinwar.

“The Israeli security forces were close to Sinwar but did not act because they did not want to harm the hostages who were near him. They are essentially the card of this lone and murderous leader. They are his human shields,” he said.


Negotiation leader Mossad chief David Barnea reportedly being kept back amid uncertainty over talks; Israel to reportedly to mull framework for withdraw from Egypt-Gaza border

 

A view of the Philadelphi Corridor, the Egypt-Gaza border area in Rafah, on June 18, 2024. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)

A view of the Philadelphi Corridor, the Egypt-Gaza border area in Rafah, on June 18, 2024. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)

An Israeli negotiating team will fly out this week for ongoing talks with mediators on securing a hostage release deal with Hamas, despite uncertainty after the IDF’s attempted assassination Saturday of a top commander in the terror group, Muhammad Deif, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday.

The official declined to say who would be flying, and whether the talks would be held in Doha or in Cairo.

Over the weekend, Israel carried out a strike intended to kill Hamas military commander Deif. The strike killed another target — Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade — though Israel has not yet been able to confirm whether Deif died in the bombing.

The official maintained that the fact that Hamas has not walked away from talks “further supports the prime minister’s position that continued military pressure and a firm stance brings Israel closer to its goals — the defeat of Hamas and the return of the hostages.

“Now is the time to ramp up military pressure,” said the official, adding that regardless of whether Deif is dead, “Hamas has suffered a major blow.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference at the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv. July 13, 2024.(Dudu Bachar/POOL)

Hebrew media outlets have widely reported that US and Qatari mediators also believe the strike on Deif will not push Hamas to stop negotiating for a deal.

Nonetheless, Mossad chief David Barnea, who leads Israel’s negotiating team, is currently not slated to make the trip, as initially planned. The team is expected to comprise professionals who will work on the details of a deal proposal, rather than senior figures who can haggle over the broader terms.

Netanyahu has recently toughened his stance on the current proposal, reportedly amid intelligence reports that the IDF offensive in Gaza has weakened Hamas to the point that it is eager for a ceasefire.

In recent remarks, the prime minister laid down what he said were nonnegotiable terms, one of which concerns maintaining Israeli control along the Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

The question of whether IDF forces remain on the border is one of the issues blocking a potential hostage-and-ceasefire deal, because both the Gaza-based Hamas and Egypt, a mediator in the talks, are opposed to Israel keeping its forces there.

The IDF currently controls the border on the Gaza side, having captured it as part of a military offensive to destroy Hamas.

Israel is worried that if its troops leave the border zone, Hamas’s armed wing could return to its practice of smuggling weapons and supplies from Egypt into Gaza via tunnels that would allow it to rearm.

Rocket launchers found by IDF troops on the Gaza-Egypt border, May 22, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Channel 12 reported that recent talks in Cairo with the participation of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Israeli security officials, the head of Egyptian intelligence and US officials hammered out a plan under which Israeli forces would withdraw from the border area, and electronic surveillance systems would be installed to prevent smuggling under or above ground. Work would also be carried out to ensure that there are no more tunnels passing under the border. Israel would have control over the surveillance systems, the report said.

The outline plan is to be presented Tuesday to Netanyahu, the report said.

The framework largely matches similar reports last week that said Israel was discussing withdrawing its forces on the ground from the border area. On Friday, the Prime Minister’s Office emphatically denied that any such pullout was being discussed, calling a Reuters report on the matter “complete fake news.”

Addressing another stumbling block on the road to a hostage deal, the framework calls for the Rafah Border Crossing between Egypt and Gaza to be operated by international entities with the support of local Palestinians who are not linked to Hamas, through a list compiled by Egypt and vetted by Israel’s Shin Bet, Channel 12 reported.

The intention is to add the framework to an appendix of the current hostage deal proposal that will also address other outstanding issues, such as preventing Hamas fighters from moving to the northern Gaza Strip when permission is given for civilians to make the move, the network said.

Also, Israel is demanding that terrorists convicted of murder who are released as part of a hostage deal be exiled to Gaza or another country rather than to the West Bank, Channel 12 reported, citing senior Israeli officials familiar with the details.

That demand has been made to avoid opposition to the deal by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who have said they would withdraw from the government if such prisoners are released in exchange for hostages.

Israel could request that at least 50 terrorists convicted of murder and released in exchange for hostages be exiled to Gaza or sent to another country, the report said.

This image from video released by the IDF on June 5, 2024, shows a Hamas smuggling tunnel in southern Gaza’s Rafah. (Israel Defense Forces)

Kan news reported Tuesday that Netanyahu is still emphatic about Israel retaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor.

According to the outlet, during a Sunday meeting attended by the prime minister, senior security officials and negotiators, a major gap became apparent between Netanyahu’s position and that of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and security officials regarding Philadelphi.

Netanyahu insisted on leaving IDF units along the border, rather than just relying on surveillance, in contrast to Gallant and security officials who were in favor of the arrangement. The prime minister also demanded that a method be found to prevent armed Gazans from moving to the north of the Strip. Negotiators warned Netanyahu that without a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Egyptian border and a plan to enable the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, Hamas would not agree to a deal, the report said.

Meanwhile, Gallant told relatives of IDF observation soldiers held hostage by Hamas at a meeting Monday that a hostage-truce deal is closer than it has ever been and that the security establishment sees no insurmountable security obstacles to it, Channel 12 reported. The female soldiers were captured from their base on the border on October 7.

Gallant reportedly advised the families to schedule a meeting in the next few days with Netanyahu to ensure the opportunity was not missed.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets with IDF fighter pilots at the Nevatim IDF air base on July 14, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

“When a deal was not possible, I told you,” Gallant said, according to Channel 12. “Now it is [possible], so I’m telling you: It’s closer than it has ever been. There is complete unanimity in the defense establishment — the IDF, the Shin Bet, and the Mossad — that there is no insurmountable security obstacle to the deal from their point of view.”

Gallant reportedly went on: “The matter is not parked with us [in the defense establishment]. It is critical to move ahead with decisions in the near future. It’s important to finalize the processes in the coming days before the prime minister’s trip to Washington, or during the course of his visit. After that, it will be much more difficult and complicated.”

Netanyahu heads to the US next week to address a joint session of Congress and for talks at the White House with President Joe Biden.

The hostage families reportedly asked Gallant how exactly they should proceed, and whether Netanyahu was sabotaging the deal.

The defense minister, in response, reportedly said: “You should arrange a meeting with the prime minister before he flies to the US. He’s the one who decides.”

Families of hostages and supporters march toward Jerusalem to demand their release, on the third day of a four-day trek from Tel Aviv, at Shoresh, July 12, 2024 (Sha_b_p@ / Pro-Democracty Protest Movement)

Responding to the report, Gallant’s office said he holds frequent meetings to update families of hostages, but would not comment on the reported content of such meetings and was unhappy when material was leaked from them.

A source in the Prime Minister’s Office said that to secure the release of the hostages, pressure must be increased on Hamas’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar — and not on Netanyahu.