Iran’s hard-line leadership used a two-month negotiating window with the United States to rebuild military capabilities, tighten the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ grip over the armed forces and prepare Tehran’s regional allies for an expanded war, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.
The preparations, undertaken under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, have included accelerating missile and drone production, reorganizing Iran’s security leadership and coordinating with allied groups in Yemen and Iraq for possible attacks extending from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, the Journal reported Monday, citing Iranian and Arab officials and regional intelligence.
The moves suggest that while Iranian diplomats continued exploring arrangements with Washington, influential figures in Tehran increasingly viewed the negotiations as a temporary respite rather than a path toward ending the conflict.
“There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” Tehran-based defense analyst Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash told the Journal.
According to the report, Iranian hard-liners suspected that the United States and Israel were using diplomacy partly to relieve pressure on the global economy while preparing for another major confrontation.
Tehran consequently used the relative lull to restore access to missile facilities damaged during the war, increase weapons production and strengthen preparations for offensive operations.
The reported strategy comes as the 60-day period connected to the June US-Iran memorandum expires without a broader peace agreement.
The interim understanding was intended to halt major fighting and provide a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating longer-term disputes.
It quickly deteriorated, however, as Washington accused Tehran of failing to reopen the waterway and Iran accused the United States of failing to honor economic commitments. Efforts by mediators to revive the arrangement had made “absolutely no progress” by last week, according to an Iranian source cited by Reuters.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran had made no decision to resume negotiations with Washington. Oil prices rose Monday as the diplomatic impasse and severely reduced traffic through Hormuz renewed concerns about global energy supplies.
One of the most consequential elements of Tehran’s preparations has reportedly been a reorganization of the country’s military and security hierarchy.
The Journal reported that the leadership has moved to give the IRGC greater influence over Iran’s conventional military while placing veterans of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns in important security positions.
That shift has already become visible at the highest levels of government.
Earlier this month, Khamenei appointed former longtime IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, putting one of Iran’s best-known military hard-liners in a central position coordinating national security and foreign policy.
Rezaei commanded the Revolutionary Guard for 16 years and led it through most of the Iran-Iraq War.
Rezaei has also taken a hard line over Hormuz. Iran announced last week that the strait would remain closed unless Washington agreed to Tehran’s conditions, including steps toward ending the war and releasing frozen Iranian assets.
Former US diplomat and Iran nuclear negotiator Alan Eyre told the Journal that for Iran’s leadership, “the baseline is war,” with the regime preparing itself for another major attack even while diplomacy continues.
Iran nevertheless faces significant internal disagreement over that strategy. President Masoud Pezeshkian and more pragmatic figures have argued that the country needs a negotiated settlement and sanctions relief to prevent its severely damaged economy from deteriorating further, according to the Journal.
Iran has meanwhile moved faster than some Israeli officials expected in restoring infrastructure and regaining access to missile sites damaged by US and Israeli attacks, the Journal reported.
The IRGC has publicly acknowledged using pauses in the fighting to improve its capabilities.
An IRGC spokesman said in July that the force had accelerated missile production and worked to increase missile accuracy during the period of reduced hostilities.
Tehran has also demonstrated that it retains the ability to strike American military facilities and targets throughout the Gulf.
Iranian missiles increasingly targeted US positions in Jordan in July. Three American service members were killed when an Iranian missile struck sleeping quarters at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, according to US officials.
Later that month, Jordan said it intercepted five Iranian missiles during another attack, while the IRGC said it had targeted American military installations in the country.
The reported preparations are not confined to Iran itself.
Arab intelligence services have detected communications between Iranian officials and allied armed groups indicating that Tehran is preparing its regional network for a broader conflict.
IRGC personnel have reportedly traveled to Yemen and coordinated with Iran-backed forces over potential operations in the Red Sea.
Reuters reported in July that Iran had instructed Yemen’s Houthis to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States attacked Iran’s electrical infrastructure.
A source close to the Houthis said IRGC representatives already present in Yemen would have authority over when such a closure should occur.
The Houthis subsequently declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on July 20, threatening Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb after accusing Riyadh of participating in a siege of Yemen.
