Axios says US doesn’t believe Iranian strike imminent; Israeli source: Chances ‘less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk’; IDF, CENTCOM chiefs said to discuss threat

In this image provided December 4, 2025, by Sepahnews of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a missile is launched as a part of the guard's drill in the Persian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman. (Sepahnews via AP)

In this image provided December 4, 2025, by Sepahnews of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a missile is launched as a part of the guard’s drill in the Persian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman. (Sepahnews via AP)

Israel has warned the Trump administration that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be using an ongoing military exercise focusing on missiles as cover to launch an attack on Israel, according to a Sunday report, amid fears that Jerusalem and Tehran are readying for another confrontation.

Citing Israeli and US sources, the Axios news site reported that Israel has a much lower risk tolerance after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, and noted that Jerusalem issued similar warnings six weeks ago when it identified similar movements of Iranian missiles, though nothing came of it.

“The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50 percent, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” an Israeli source was quoted as saying.

However, the US intelligence community has not seen any signs that an Iranian strike could be imminent, an American source told the outlet.

According to the sources quoted by Axios, the highest risk of war breaking out between the two regional enemy countries comes from a potential “miscalculation,” with each side thinking that other is preparing for attack and moving to preempt it.

Iranians visit an exhibition showcasing missile and drone achievements in Tehran on November 12, 2025. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)

The report added that both Mossad and the IDF’s Military Intelligence do not assess that the current pace of Iran’s rearmament necessitates immediate action, but they believe the problem could become more urgent in several months.

According to Axios, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir called US Central Command head Adm. Bradley Cooper on Saturday and voiced Israel’s concerns about Iranian military exercises.

The two then met in Tel Aviv on Sunday, the report added, where Zamir urged close coordination between the US and Israeli militaries on defensive preparations.

The IDF declined to comment on the report, and CENTCOM did not respond to the outlet’s request to comment.

Zamir on Sunday warned publicly that the IDF will strike Israel’s enemies “wherever required, on near and distant fronts alike,” apparently hinting that Israel may again need to attack in Iran.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir speaks at a handover ceremony for the Planning Directorate chief at the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, December 21, 2025. (Screenshot: Israel Defense Forces)

“Iran is the one that financed and armed the ring of strangulation around Israel and stood behind the plans for its destruction,” he said at a changeover ceremony for the head of the IDF Planning Directorate, referring to the terror proxies that Tehran built up in the region.

Zamir’s comments came a day after NBC News reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will present plans for a new potential attack on Iran to US President Donald Trump during his upcoming visit to the United States.

According to the report, which cited several unnamed officials with knowledge of the matter, Israel is growing increasingly concerned that Iran is rebuilding and even expanding its ballistic missile production in the wake of the nations’ 12-day war in June.

“The threat of the missiles is very real, and we weren’t able to prevent them all last time,” a source said.

A source with knowledge on the matter, as well as former US officials, told NBC that Jerusalem believes Iran’s renewed production of ballistic missiles could increase to 3,000 per year if left unchecked.

Perhaps lending credence to Israel’s concerns, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed Sunday that his country was “fully prepared” for a new round of fighting if it comes, and that it has rebuilt its strategic facilities damaged during the June war.

Women stand next to model missiles and a nuclear enrichment centrifuge during a rally outside the former US embassy in Tehran as Iranians mark the 46th anniversary of the start of the Iran hostage crisis, on November 4, 2025 (ATTA KENARE / AFP)

Israel launched its war against Iran in June targeting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and citing an imminent existential threat.

Over 12 days, successive waves of airstrikes killed Iranian nuclear scientists, took out much of the supply and production capacity for the missile program, and damaged uranium enrichment sites, with the US joining in the last days to take out underground nuclear facilities that only heavy bunker-buster bombs could penetrate.

Iran said over 1,000 people were killed by Israeli strikes in the war. It retaliated by launching over 500 ballistic missiles and around 1,100 drones at Israel, which killed 32 people and wounded over 3,000 in Israel, according to health officials and hospitals.

In all, Israel suffered 36 missile impacts and one drone strike in populated areas, causing damage to 2,305 homes in 240 buildings, along with two universities and a hospital, and leaving over 13,000 Israelis displaced.


The investigators published a video showing the wrecked car, with blood visible on the driver’s seat.

An investigator works at the scene where Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff's army operational training directorate, was reportedly killed in a car bomb in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2025.
An investigator works at the scene where Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff’s army operational training directorate, was reportedly killed in a car bomb in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2025.
(photo credit: Russia’s Investigative Committee/Handout via REUTERS)
A Russian general was killed by a car bomb in southern Moscow on Monday, Russian investigators said, adding that they suspected Ukrainian special services could have been behind the attack.

The bomb exploded under the Kia Sorento driven by Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff’s army operational training directorate, as he left a parking space at 06:55 Moscow time.

Russia’s State Investigative Committee said that Sarvarov died as a result of his injuries.

The committee said that one of the versions being investigated is that the bomb was planted by Ukrainian special services. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

An investigator works at the scene where Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff's army operational training directorate, was reportedly killed in a car bomb in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2025.  (credit: Russia's Investigative Committee/Handout via REUTERS)
An investigator works at the scene where Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian General Staff’s army operational training directorate, was reportedly killed in a car bomb in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2025. (credit: Russia’s Investigative Committee/Handout via REUTERS)

Russian court jails eight men for life over Ukrainian truck bomb attack

A Russian military court last month sentenced eight men to life in prison over their purported role in a deadly Ukrainian truck bomb attack on the bridge that links southern Russia to Crimea, in a ruling celebrated by war bloggers.

Ukraine’s SBU domestic intelligence agency claimed responsibility for the attack, which in October 2022 ripped through part of the 19-km (11.8-mile) bridge, killing five people and damaging what was a key supply route for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and the bridge was a flagship project for President Vladimir Putin, who opened it for road traffic by driving a truck across in 2018.

The driver of the truck carrying the explosives was killed in the attack, as were four civiliansin a passenger car nearby, and a section of the bridge partially collapsed.

The eight men convicted on terrorism charges were accused of being part of an organized criminal group that helped Ukraine carry out the bombing.

Vasyl Malyuk, the head of Ukraine’s SBU, said in 2023 that the explosives had been concealed in metal cylinders hidden inside large rolls of plastic film. The SBU had used others in the plot but had kept them in the dark about what was really going on, he said.


The attacks come after US President Donald Trump vowed to retaliate after an attack on US personnel last weekend in Syria by a suspected Islamic State terrorist.

US soldiers attached to the Iowa National Guard sign GBU-31 munitions systems in the US Central Command area of responsibility December 18, 2025 as the US military launched large-scale strikes against dozens of Islamic State targets in Syria in retaliation for an attack on US personnel.
US soldiers attached to the Iowa National Guard sign GBU-31 munitions systems in the US Central Command area of responsibility December 18, 2025 as the US military launched large-scale strikes against dozens of Islamic State targets in Syria in retaliation for an attack on US personnel.
(photo credit: US Air Force Photo/Handout via REUTERS)
The United States, collaborating with Jordanian forces, struck over 70 Islamic State targets in Syria on Friday, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth confirmed.

The series of strikes, dubbed “Operation Hawkeye Strike,” targeted Islamic State infrastructure and weapons sites, according to a statement released by Hegseth on social media.

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that US fighter jets and attack helicopters, supported by Jordanian Armed Forces aircraft, were used to drop over 100 precise munitions on the targets.

“This is not the beginning of a war-  it is a declaration of vengeance,” Hegseth said, “if you target Americans, anywhere in the world, you will spend the rest of your brief, anxious life knowing the United States will hunt you, find you, and ruthlessly kill you.”

 

US President Donald Trump confirmed that the US is “inflicting very serious retaliation” against those responsible for the deaths of two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter who were killed during an Islamic State ambush attack on December 13.

“We are striking very strongly against ISIS strongholds in Syria, a place soaked in blood, which has many problems, but one that has a bright future if ISIS can be eradicated,” Trump said in a social media post. “All terrorists who are evil enough to attack Americans are hereby warned-  YOU WILL BE HIT HARDER THAN YOU HAVE EVER BEEN HIT BEFORE IF YOU, IN ANY WAY, ATTACK OR THREATEN THE USA.”

CENTCOM commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, described the operation as “critical to preventing ISIS from inspiring terrorist plots and attacks against the US homeland,” adding that the US will “continue to relentlessly pursue terrorists who seek to harm Americans and our partners across the region.”

A US Airman attaches a GBU-31 munitions system to an F-15E Strike Eagle in the US Central Command area of responsibility, December 19, 2025, in support of Operation Hawkeye Strike as the US military launched large-scale strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria. (credit: US Air Force Photo/Handout via REUTERS)
A US Airman attaches a GBU-31 munitions system to an F-15E Strike Eagle in the US Central Command area of responsibility, December 19, 2025, in support of Operation Hawkeye Strike as the US military launched large-scale strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria. (credit: US Air Force Photo/Handout via REUTERS)

Syrian response to the strikes

Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs additionally released a statement following the strikes, reiterating its “steadfast commitment to fighting ISIS” and emphasizing the “urgent necessity of strengthening international cooperation to combat terrorism in all its forms.”

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whom Trump referred to as a “man who is working very hard to bring Greatness back to Syria,” was “fully in support” of the strike, according to Trump’s social media statement.

Reuters contributed to this report.