President Trump told Axios in an interview on Monday that the situation with Iran is “in flux” because he sent a “big armada” to the region but thinks Tehran genuinely wants to cut a deal.
Why it matters: Trump came close to ordering a strike on regime targets in Iran earlier this month over the killing of thousands of protesters. Instead he delayed the decision while also moving military assets to the region. White House officials say an attack is still on the table, though the protests have largely been suppressed.
- Sources with knowledge of the situation say Trump hasn’t made a final decision. He will likely hold more consultations this week and be presented with additional military options.
- Those options will be enhanced by the arrival of an aircraft carrier strike group to the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln entered CENTCOM’s area of responsibility on Monday.
What he’s saying: In the interview, Trump mentioned his decision to dispatch the Lincoln.
- “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela,” Trump said.
- He declined to discuss the options presented to him by his national security team, or which one he prefers.
- At the same time, he said diplomacy remained an option. “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.”
A senior U.S. official said in a briefing with reporters several hours after Trump spoke to Axios that the White House “is open for business” when it comes to negotiations with Iran.
- “If they want to contact us and they know what the terms are, then we’re going to have the conversation”, the U.S. official said.
- The official added that the U.S. conditions for a deal have been transmitted to Iran many times in the last year.
Between the lines: Some more hawkish members of Trump’s circle have urged him to enforce his own red line after he promised to help the protesters and punish the regime.
- Others have questioned what bombing Tehran would actually achieve, and are more intrigued by the idea of using the regime’s weakness to push for a deal.
- U.S. officials say any deal would have to include the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, a cap on Iran’s stockpile of long-range missiles, a change in Iran’s policy of supporting proxies in the region and a ban on independent uranium enrichment in the country.
- The Iranians have said they’re willing to talk but have not signaled any willingness to accept those terms.
Flashback: Trump claimed that prior to the 12-day war last June, Iran’s “big force of missiles” meant it could have launched a damaging surprise attack on Israel.
- By giving Israel a green-light to attack first, Trump claimed he had prevented such a scenario.
- “They would have attacked…but that first day [of the war] was brutal for them. They lost their leaders and many of their missiles,” Trump said.
- “If there was a different president Iran would have the nukes, and they would have attacked first,” he added.
Reality check: Prior to the 12-day war, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessed that if Iran decided to sprint for a nuclear weapon it would take two weeks to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium and four to six months to produce a crude nuclear device.
- Iran’s nuclear facilities were badly damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes, though the status of its uranium stockpile is not fully clear.
What to watch: The U.S. military is bracing for an order from Trump.
- In addition to the Lincoln, the military has sent more F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, more refueling tankers, and additional air defense systems to the region.
- CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper visited Israel on Saturday to coordinate military plans and potential joint defensive efforts to counter an Iranian attack against Israel, sources said.
