Israeli intelligence agencies were caught off-guard by the speed and success of the rebels’ takeover of Syria, after the anti-government militias officially declared victory in ousting President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday.

According to Hebrew-language outlet Yediot Ahronot, Israel intelligence indicated that Assad’s grip on power in the country, which has been ravaged by more than a decade of civil war, was stable.

Bolstered by support from Russian and Iran, Assad’s position as the leader of Syria was not seriously threatened by the rebels, Israeli intelligence believed.

For years, Russia provided intense military support to Assad, including conducting airstrikes on rebel groups and helping retake major cities, such as Palmyra, after they were captured by militias.

Iran directed Hezbollah, its proxy group, to fight against the rebels in Syria in order to protect Assad.

But with Russian forces stretched thin due to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and Hezbollah suffering unprecedented blows during the conflict with Israel, Assad’s strongest supporters did not provide the backing he needed to crush the rebel offensive.

“Tehran and Moscow did not foresee the collapse of the regime, but neither did Israel’s intelligence agencies or the Mossad see anything like that on the horizon,” Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal wrote on his X account.

“With all due respect to our intelligence services, the Israeli assessment should have been better.”

Israel is now grappling with unanticipated security concerns, as the Assad regime was toppled and the rebels are now in control of much of the country.

It’s widely understood that many of the rebel forces are funded and supported by Turkey, which has expressed major hostility towards Israel since the outbreak of the war against Hamas.

Additionally, many rebel leaders adhere to an Islamist ideology, with some of the groups absorbed into the wider anti-Assad movement originating as offshoots of Al-Qaeda.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned the rebels that they are obligated to abide by existing security arrangements between Israel and Syria, or risking facing consequences from the IDF.

Sa’ar noted that in recent days, armed militants had “entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel,” saying that constituted a violation of a May 1974 agreement to keep the area free of Israeli or Syrian troops.

The presence of armed rebels near the Israeli border constitutes a threat to Israel’s security, particularly the communities of the Golan Heights.

Sa’ar stressed that Israel would act to protect its citizens and assets, but added that Jerusalem “will not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”