Will China-Russia summit impact Israel’s war with Iran-backed Hamas? – analysis

Author: Published: October 16, 2023

Despite years of favorable Israeli foreign policy, both Beijing and Moscow are now openly hostile to Israel.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) stands next to Russian President Vladimir Putin as he arrives for a group photo during the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in Xiamen, southeastern China's Fujian Province, China September 4, 2017 (photo credit: REUTERS/WU HONG/POOL/FILE PHOTO)
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) stands next to Russian President Vladimir Putin as he arrives for a group photo during the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in Xiamen, southeastern China’s Fujian Province, China September 4, 2017
(photo credit: REUTERS/WU HONG/POOL/FILE PHOTO)
While the US is focused on the Middle East this week and Israel is considering whether a ground incursion in Gaza should take place; Russia and China are holding talks.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in the Chinese capital on Monday, starting his visit to Beijing which will host its third Belt and Road international forum, according to TASS.

This is important because Russia and China have both been critical of Israel after the Hamas attack. Despite years in which Israeli foreign policy attempted to cultivate these two countries or at least encourage a balanced view of the conflict in Beijing and Moscow, both countries are now openly hostile to Israel and Hamas has praised Russia’s view of the current situation.

In addition, they are both close to Iran.

Iran seeking to unify fronts against Israel

Iran has been seeking to unify various fronts against Israel. This potentially harms Israel’s long-term strategy. It comes amid reports that Egypt may host a meeting of countries to discuss Gaza.

It is unclear if Israel will be invited.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends an interview with China Media Group anchor Wang Guan at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, in this image released October 16, 2023 (credit: SPUTNIK/SERGEI BOBYLEV/POOL VIA REUTERS)
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends an interview with China Media Group anchor Wang Guan at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, in this image released October 16, 2023 (credit: SPUTNIK/SERGEI BOBYLEV/POOL VIA REUTERS)

This illustrates that Israel may be isolated in the wake of the Hamas attack, which has set back years of progress in the region.

How has this happened?

The attack has emboldened enemies and Iran. Iran has sought to shift the chaos in the region from Syria and Iraq to Israel’s borders. This means using proxies to strike at Israel. Israel, which once defeated whole countries in 1973 and 1967, now is facing a potential multi-front war against terrorist armies, and this appears an uphill struggle. Iran and China and Russia are watching this unfold.

So is the US, which has sent the Secretary of State to shuttle around the region. Israel’s policy of avoiding the chaos after the Arab Spring is now coming up against the multi-polar world order.

Russia’s media said that “Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed he was planning to attend the forum. While in Beijing, Lavrov is expected to hold talks with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, too, said he was ready to meet with his Russian counterpart. He told TASS he expected to discuss the Palestine-Israel conflict with Lavrov.”

Furthermore, Russian state media said that “the Belt and Road initiative was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013 to boost economic and trade investment projects involving as many countries as possible. More than 150 countries and over 30 international organizations have already joined it. China’s third Belt and Road Forum will take place in Beijing on October 17.”

Meanwhile, China and Russia also want to expand into the Middle East in other ways. They want to use BRICS and the SCO to cultivate countries in the region. These organizations also exclude Israel.

As such, the meeting in China amid the conflict in Gaza has larger regional ramifications.

Daily update: Israel – Hamas war Oct 15, 2023

Author: Published: October 15, 2023

October 15, 2023

Daily update: Israel – Hamas war 

Day 9 – 15/10/2023, 18:00 PM Israel time

General Assessment:

These 24 Hours mark important operational achievements to the IDF, with Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in Lebanon, in Gaza, eliminating the Hamas Nukhba commander that led Saturday’s attack, also killing the Northern Commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket array, and eliminating terrorists near the southern community of Nir Am.

The IDF has been completing efforts to repair and reinforce breaches and neutralize explosives hidden along the Gaze security fence, in preparation for a ground invasion. Preparations included the IDF’s call on Gaza City residents to evacuate their homes, distributed through a variety of different means, while Hamas terrorists try to prevent their evacuation in the hope of using these civilians as “human shields”.

Hezbollah has increased its attacks, making its involvement in a full-on war with Israel more likely; infiltration attempts, drones, rockets shooting etc. An Israeli official confirmed Iranian weapons shipments were under way to Syria and from there to Lebanon. The coming days will tell if Hezbollah will open a front with Israel, likely with a substantial rocket fire increase.

Operational Updates:

Northern Arena:

– Reports in Syrian media claiming Israeli airstrikes on the Aleppo airport runways

– Hamas take responsibility for an attempted infiltration into Israeli territory.

– Anti-tank missile (ATGM) is fired from Lebanon at the civilian community of Shtula killing one and injuring 3. The IDF retaliates with artillery towards the source of fire, Hezbollah takes responsibility for the attack claiming the death of one of their operatives.

– ATGM is fired from Lebanon at IDF military outpost, Hezbollah takes responsibility for the attack, in response the IDF attacked several targets in southern Lebanon.

– Hezbollah fires 3 ATGM at IDF outposts and a IDF tank near Kibbutz Manara and near Kibbutz Hanita. 3 civilian injuries reported. IDF responds attacking Hezbollah targets.

– Rockets fired from Lebanon towards North-West Israel at the cities of, Nahariya, Rosh Hanikra, Betset, Shlomi.

– At this time the IDF is attacking Hezbollah’s military infrastructure

Gaza and Southern Israel:

– The IDF together with GSS kill the Hamas Nukhba commander that led the horrendous attack on Israel, also killing the Northern Commander of the PIJ rocket array.

– IDF has called on residents of Gaza City to evacuate their homes. The call was distributed through a variety of different means, in order to try to minimize harm to uninvolved civilians.

– Gazans continue to evacuate the northern Gaza neighborhoods towards the south of the Gaza strip, while Hamas terrorists try to prevent their evacuation in the hope of using these civilians as “human shields.”.

– Terrorists killed in a fire fight with IDF soldiers near the community of Nir Am.

International Arena:

– Iran sent a message to Israel stressing it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel war, but that it will have to intervene if the Israeli operation in Gaza continues.

– The United States has deployed a second aircraft carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Middle East.

– The U.S. states that at least 29 of its citizens were slain in the initial Hamas attacks.

Guest Writer – Mayan Sarnat

Iran threatens: ‘No one can guarantee’ control of situation if Israel enters Gaza

Author: Published: October 15, 2023

Tehran condemns ‘barbaric attacks’ in Strip, says issue of ‘civilian prisoners’ in Gaza is a priority; US fears Iran could become ‘directly engaged,’ says White House

By AFP and TOI STAFFToday, 5:37 pm   0
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani (R) meeting with Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Doha on October 14, 2023. (Qatar News Agency / AFP)

Iran on Sunday warned that any Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip could escalate conflicts elsewhere in the Middle East.

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held talks with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani in Doha on Sunday, the eighth day of the war between Israel and Gaza.

“No one can guarantee control of the situation and the non-expansion of the conflicts,” he said, according to an Iranian foreign ministry statement. “Those who are interested in preventing the scope of war and crisis from expanding need to prevent the current barbaric attacks… against citizens and civilians in Gaza.”

Amir-Abdollahian also criticized the United States, which has given its unequivocal backing to Israel since the October 7 onslaught on southern Israel by Hamas terrorists.

War erupted after Hamas’s October 7 massacre, which saw at least 1,500 terrorists burst across the border into Israel from the Gaza Strip by land, air and sea, killing over 1,300 people and seizing 150-200 hostages of all ages under the cover of a deluge of thousands of rockets fired at Israeli towns and cities. The vast majority of those killed as gunmen seized border communities were civilians — including children and the elderly. Entire families were executed in their homes, and over 260 were slaughtered at an outdoor festival, many amid horrific acts of brutality by the terrorists, in what US President Joe Biden has highlighted as “the worst massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust.”

Both the US and Israel have repeatedly warned against any other actors attempting to join the war between Israel and Gaza or exploit the situation.

US President Joe Biden, center, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, and Vice President Kamala Harris, left, speaking October 10, 2023, in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, about the war between Israel and the Palestinian terror group Hamas after its shock onslaught on Saturday. (AP/Evan Vucci)

US President Joe Biden issued an explicit warning in a speech last week that was widely seen as aimed at Hezbollah and Iran: “Let me say again — to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

In Washington, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Sunday said the United States feared an escalation of war, and the prospect of Iran becoming “directly engaged.”

Iran has repeatedly threatened Israel in recent days, and Amir-Abdollahian has been in Lebanon, Qatar, Syria and Iraq holding a series of meetings, including with Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh.

On Saturday, during his meeting with Haniyeh, Amir-Abdollahian called on Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza, warning that the war might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer “a huge earthquake.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, left, meets with Ismail Haniyeh, one of the Hamas leaders, in Doha, Qatar, Oct. 14, 2023. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

Amir-Abdollahian also met on Saturday in Beirut with UN special envoy Tor Wennesland — a meeting that was harshly criticized by Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan, who shared a photo of the pair meeting on X, writing: “Don’t forget to wash the blood of Israeli babies off your hands after that handshake.”

In response, a UN spokesman said that all of Wennesland’s meetings in recent days “have been to discuss diplomatic efforts to release hostages, secure humanitarian access and prevent a spillover of the conflict to the wider region. This includes his recent meetings in Lebanon.”

Sunday’s Iranian foreign ministry statement said Amir-Abdollahian had met high-ranking Hamas officials in Beirut and Doha who described “the issue of civilian prisoners as a priority” and would “take the necessary measures,” but provided no further details.

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