Iran-backed terror group ‘ready for any option,’ Nasrallah says, amid spiking tensions on border with Israel

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah speaks via a video link during activities marking the Shiite Muslim holy day of Ashura in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, July 29, 2023. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah speaks via a video link during activities marking the Shiite Muslim holy day of Ashura in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, July 29, 2023. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

The head of the Hezbollah terror group warned Saturday that it would respond to any “stupid act” by Israel amid spiking tensions along the border.

“Israel is still occupying parts of Lebanese lands and brazenly talks about provocations,” Hassan Nasrallah said, according to the Ynet news site.

“I say to the Zionists: ‘Beware of any stupid step or decisions of one kind or another, the resistance does not take its responsibility for responding and liberating lands, lightly. We are ready for any option and we will not remain silent in the face of any stupid act,’” Nasrallah said in an address to mark the Shiite festival Ashura.

Binary Options Fraud – ToI journalist Simona Weinglass’ story

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Tensions on Israel’s border with Lebanon have risen recently after Hezbollah set up tents in Israeli territory.

Israel has sought since early June to remove two tents placed by Hezbollah in the contested Mount Dov region, also known as the Shebaa Farms. One tent was removed after Israel reportedly sent a message to Hezbollah threatening an armed confrontation if it did not remove the outpost.

However, earlier this month, Nasrallah said the other tent would remain, and threatened to attack Israel if it tries to remove it.

An aerial photo of Hezbollah tents in Israeli territory, June 2023. (Courtesy)

Israel and Lebanon do not have a formal border due to territorial disputes; however, they largely abide by the United Nations-recognized Blue Line between the two countries. The Blue Line is marked with blue barrels along the border and is several meters from the Israeli fence in some areas, which is built entirely within Israeli territory.

The area where the tents were erected was captured by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Six Day War and later effectively annexed along with the Golan Heights and the village of Ghajar. The Lebanese government says the area belongs to Lebanon.

While Israel and Lebanon recently concluded tough talks to demarcate a maritime frontier, the enemies have never negotiated a land border, leading to occasional skirmishes along the ceasefire line that forms the de facto border.

In addition, earlier this week, Israel Defense Forces troops filmed camouflaged Hezbollah members walking along the border near the northern Israeli town of Dovev last week. The troops did not engage the terror group patrol.

Children ride their bicycles past by a poster of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah at the Lebanese-Israeli border village of Marwaheen, south of Lebanon, July 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

On Tuesday, Nasrallah gloated that Israel was on the “path to disappearance” after the passage of the first judicial overhaul law led to chaotic protests.

“Israel was once thought of as a regional power that can’t be beaten, and regional countries accepted its threat as a fact that can’t be removed,” Nasrallah said.

He added that “its trust, awareness and self-confidence have deteriorated into the crisis it is experiencing today.”

Nasrallah, whose own country has been mired in years of devastating political bedlam and has seen its own spasms of protests, branded Monday Israel’s “worst” day since the state’s creation.

On that day, the Israeli government enacted its “reasonableness” law, which bars the courts from reviewing politicians’ decisions based on their “reasonableness,” despite sustained mass protests, opposition by many top judicial, security, economic and public figures, and over 10,000 IDF reservists saying they will suspend their voluntary duty in protest.

Riot police try to clear demonstrators with a water canon during a protest after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government passes the first law to overhaul the judicial system, in Tel Aviv, July 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

Chaos erupted on the streets after the vote, with police clashing with thousands of protesters blocking major highways in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and around the country.

Many observers and opposition members have lamented that the issue has divided society in a way that will be difficult to overcome, and top military officials have said the damage done to the service model of the Israel Defense Forces will take many years to remedy.

In addition, the Military Intelligence Directorate reportedly sent four letters to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning of the security consequences of his coalition’s judicial overhaul plans, the latest arriving days before the Knesset approved the first piece of controversial legislation earlier this week.

Senior intelligence officials warned that Israel’s enemies, particularly Iran and its proxy terror group Hezbollah, sense a historic opportunity to shift the balance of power in the region in their favor, amid deep, unprecedented divisions in Israeli society due to the overhaul plans, which they interpret as weakness, the Yedioth Ahronoth daily reported Friday, without citing sources or quoting from said letters.

According to the reported assessments, Israel’s enemies view the summer of 2023 as a historic low point in the country’s history, and officials are concerned that serious harm may be caused to its deterrence.

Although intelligence officials think Iran and Hezbollah prefer to stand back and allow the crisis to destroy Israel from within, the risk of escalation is believed to be the highest since the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, it said.

Emanuel Fabian contributed to this report.


Warning Signs: Rising Risk of Iran Axis Attack on Israel

Eyes on Iran axis (Archive: IDF/CC BY-NC 2.0)

Military leaders are sounding the alarm about a rising risk of attack on Israel as it faces a worsening political crisis. Defense chiefs are seeing indications that terror groups around Israel are planning a joint operation, Makor Rishon weekly reports.

Senior IDF officers presented the warning to the security cabinet this week in an unusual briefing, the report says.

The military intelligence branch also estimates that the danger of an armed clash with Hezbollah is the highest since the 2006 Lebanon War, Ynet reports. Armed Hezbollah fighters were spotted touring the border this week in the latest sign of escalation.

Notably, Hezbollah significantly boosted its deployment along the frontier in recent months. The group’s elite forces are also training for raids into Israeli territory.

As tensions mount, the Iran axis held a high-level meeting to discuss the joint battle against Israel. The Iranians are coordinating their moves with Hezbollah and Hamas, and assessing that Israel and its military forces are now weaker.

For now, Tehran and its allies are only watching and planning. Next, they could decide that the timing is right to attack.

Intel chiefs warn Netanyahu

The IDF intel branch warned PM Netanyahu that Israel’s enemies see a golden opportunity to change the strategic equation in the Middle East, military journalist Yossi Yehoshua reported. Iran and Hezbollah see the friction in Israel-US ties as the gravest threat to Israeli dominance, the report said.

Netanyahu will convene a meeting with military leaders on Sunday to discuss the Hezbollah threat, N12 reported. In parallel, Air Force Commander Tomer Bar told pilots and air teams that enemy forces could test Israel on the battlefield at this time. Bar stressed in his talks that the Air Force must remain alert and ready to defend Israel.

The IDF and security services are keeping a close watch on all fronts to detect indications of an imminent attack. Israeli forces also intensified their preparations for a large-scale battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The army’s analysts estimate that Hezbollah is trying to drag Israel into a few days of fighting. However, combat could quickly spiral out of control and trigger a broader clash or a regional conflict.

In case of war, the IDF is expected to strike hard in Lebanon, from the air and on the ground. A key component of Israel’s war plans is a massive assault to destroy Hezbollah’s elite forces.


July 28, 2023 | Flash Brief

 

Latest Developments

Israeli intelligence personnel have issued increasingly dire warnings about security on Israel’s northern border, Israeli media reported on July 28. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has received multiple letters — including as recently as last week — from the Israeli military’s Intelligence Directorate warning him of high prospects for escalation with the Iran-backed terrorist organization Hezbollah. The letters warn that Hezbollah and Iran are monitoring internal unrest in Israel and view the Jewish state’s deterrence as being at a historic low point. The intelligence reports also claim that the reforms weaken the U.S.-Israel alliance, further harming deterrence.

The warnings come as internal protests over the Israeli government’s judicial reforms have raised concern that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) lacks the readiness and capability to respond to various threats by Iran-backed groups.

Expert Analysis

“The status quo on Israel’s northern border has been relatively peaceful for years, but recent provocations by Hezbollah have disrupted this tranquility. Fueled by Israel’s political instability and a prolonged cycle of violence in the West Bank, Hezbollah and Iran perceive this as an opportune moment to advance their strategy of acting militarily against the Jewish state.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Hezbollah rightly calculates that America’s posture in Lebanon constrains Israel and amplifies the group’s deterrence of the IDF. Therefore, the IDF intelligence’s reading that fraying U.S.-Israel ties weaken deterrence against Hezbollah misunderstands America’s posture. The United States is extending a de facto protective umbrella to Lebanon and opposes Israeli military action. Israel and the United States are not aligned in Lebanon.” — Tony Badran, FDD Research Fellow

Hezbollah’s Escalation

For years, the IDF has warned of Hezbollah’s growing military capabilities. Experts estimate that Hezbollah possesses 150,000 rockets and 500 precision-guided missiles aimed at Israel with the intention of overwhelming Israeli defense systems. However, the terrorist group has avoided armed conflict with Israel since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

That may change. On March 13, a Hezbollah operative crossed the border into Israel and planted a roadside bomb at Megiddo junction that injured an Arab-Israeli driver. Armed Hezbollah fighters erected a tent in Israeli territory on April 8, near the disputed Blue Line, and set up a second tent a week later. On July 6, Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at Israel’s northern border, with parts of the projectile landing in Israeli territory. The IDF responded to the attack with artillery.

On July 12, three Hezbollah operatives received non-lethal injuries from IDF stun grenades after attempting to sabotage the security fence between Israel and Lebanon. On July 25, the IDF released a video of Hezbollah members patrolling the Lebanon-Israel border near the Israeli community of Dovev. The IDF did not specify the date the video was filmed, saying only that it happened “last week.”

“Israel Repels Hezbollah Sabotage of Lebanese Border Fence,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hezbollah Establishes Armed Posts in Israeli Territory,” FDD Flash Brief

“Why is Hezbollah poking Israel?” by Hussain Abdul-Hussain